M&A advisory firm Tenney Group is projecting a dramatic acceleration in transportation and logistics deal activity, with 2027 expected to be a record-breaking year, according to the firm's mid-year report. “All indications lead to a highly active 2026 and to record-breaking M&A activity in 2027,” the report stated, marking a significant reversal from the past three years of subdued volumes.
Current Deal Activity and Overhangs
Global transportation and logistics deal volume was flat year over year in the first half of 2026, totaling 566 transactions, the report said. However, the report noted a sharp increase in buyer interest and preliminary activity, signaling that more deals are likely to close soon. Many buyers and investment firms face an “urgency to deploy capital” and can no longer remain on the sidelines, according to Tenney Group.
Still, several headwinds persist: tepid freight demand, elevated interest rates, the Middle East conflict, and a volatile trade landscape. The report expects a “material step down” in inflation — particularly fuel prices — and interest rates over the medium term, which would ease the path to deal closings. “Any material inflection in freight demand could tip the scales,” allowing owners who held off during the downturn to exit.
Institutional Capital and Larger Deals
Tenney Group said M&A activity continues to be “characterized by smaller, highly specialized transactions” but highlighted that the space is “increasingly attracting institutional capital,” which will pave the way for “larger, more transformational opportunities.”
| Metric | H1 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Global deal volume | 566 | Flat YoY |
| Buyer urgency | High | Increasing |
| Interest rate outlook | Declining | Supportive |
Supreme Court Ruling Impact
Following the Supreme Court’s landmark broker liability ruling (Montgomery v. Caribe Transport II), which widened liability exposure for freight brokers found negligent in hiring drivers, deal participants are changing their approach. Mark Scudder, CEO at law firm Scudder Hornung-Scherr, noted in the report:
“Buyers and sellers interested in transportation and logistics M&A are getting ahead of potential deals by evaluating the allocation of risk in contracts, discussing insurance renewal scenarios for broker liability policies, considering higher insurance limits, reviewing carrier vetting policies, and addressing consistency between policies and practices at brokers.”
Nearshoring and Cross-Border Targets
Cross-border operators tied to the growing nearshoring trend are becoming “premium acquisition targets,” Tenney Group said. These include carriers, customs brokers, transloading providers, and specialized 3PLs. Ashesh Pansuria, director at Tenney Group, commented: “Buyers are prioritizing operators with deep compliance capabilities and proven cross-border execution. For owners, those strengths may command a meaningful valuation premium as nearshoring trends continue to accelerate.”
Autonomous Trucking and Relay Networks
Beau McGinnis, vice president at Tenney Group, sees relay (hub-to-hub) networks becoming more valuable as autonomous trucking moves toward full commercialization. He said the driverless technology works best in these configurations, suggesting increased attractiveness for assets that support such operations.
The report also referenced upcoming industry events, including the Supply Chain AI Symposium and the F3: Future of Freight Festival in Chattanooga, Tennessee, where further discussion on M&A trends is expected.
Overall, Tenney Group’s forecast paints a picture of a market on the cusp of a major upswing, driven by pent-up demand, easing macro conditions, and structural shifts in logistics and trade. For executives and investors, the window for positioning — whether through acquisitions of nearshoring-focused assets or preparing for autonomous trucking integration — is narrowing as activity accelerates toward 2027.
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