The monsoon has revived over the past two days, helping reduce Central India's rainfall deficit to below 60 per cent, according to a report by The Hindu Business Line. The improvement, however, has barely changed the all-India shortfall, which remains at 42 per cent.
Monsoon Revival and Forecast
Forecasters expect a stronger monsoon phase next week, aided by a likely low-pressure area forming off the Odisha-Andhra Pradesh coast. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) numerical weather model guidance shows it moving inland towards Telangana and Maharashtra through July 5, pulling the main rain belt with it.
Regional Weather Outlook
The IMD has issued detailed outlooks for West India and Central India for the coming days.
Outlook for West India
- Isolated very heavy rainfall likely over Konkan and Goa on Sunday; isolated heavy today and tomorrow (Thursday and Friday) and for three days from Sunday.
- Isolated thunderstorms and lightning may hit the region for next four days.
- Isolated heavy rainfall also likely over Madhya Maharashtra for next three days and on Tuesday next; and over Marathwada today (Thursday).
Outlook for Central India
- Isolated to scattered rainfall likely over East Madhya Pradesh and West Madhya Pradesh for next six days.
- Over Vidarbha tomorrow and day after (Friday and Saturday); and Chhattisgarh for next four days.
- Fairly widespread to widespread over Vidarbha today (Thursday) and for three days from Sunday; and over Chhattisgarh on Monday and Tuesday.
| Region | Rainfall Type | Duration |
|---|---|---|
| Konkan and Goa | Isolated very heavy | Sunday |
| Madhya Maharashtra | Isolated heavy | Next 3 days + Tuesday |
| Marathwada | Isolated heavy | Today (Thursday) |
| East & West Madhya Pradesh | Isolated to scattered | Next 6 days |
| Vidarbha | Fairly widespread to widespread | Today + 3 days from Sunday |
| Chhattisgarh | Fairly widespread to widespread | Monday and Tuesday |
West Coast and Northern Progress
The renewed activity may also energise the west coast. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) projects moderate to heavy rain along much of the Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala belt through June 30, linked to active conditions over Maharashtra and adjoining south Madhya Pradesh, the report stated. By then, monsoon rains are likely to have spread across Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Uttarakhand, and Punjab. Delhi may see a near-on-time arrival around its normal onset date of June 30, though the advance could remain patchy. A similar outlook holds valid for adjoining parts of southern Uttar Pradesh.
Areas Likely to Remain Dry
Farther north and west, most of Jammu and Kashmir-Ladakh, Rajasthan, and northern Gujarat may have to wait longer for a sustained monsoon spell. In the south, much of Tamil Nadu is likely to remain relatively dry, except for districts bordering Kerala where scattered rain and thundershowers are forecast, according to the IMD outlook published on June 25, 2026.
Implications for Agriculture
Timely and adequate rainfall is critical for kharif sowing operations across central and western India. The reduction in Central India's deficit, while marginal, signals a potential improvement for rain-fed crops. However, the persistent all-India shortfall of 42 per cent underscores ongoing moisture stress in several regions. Commodity traders and procurement teams monitoring crop development in Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat will closely watch the forecasted low-pressure area and its trajectory through early July, as it could accelerate sowing progress and influence supply expectations for the 2026-27 season.
Sources:
