The Indian government has identified 111 districts as most vulnerable to crop damage from a potential super El Nino in 2026, according to a statement from the Agriculture Ministry. These districts have irrigation coverage of less than 25% of cultivable land, leaving crops such as paddy, pulses, and oilseeds at high risk from monsoon deficits. Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan on Tuesday warned that weak monsoon conditions are likely to persist until July 2, potentially impacting kharif crops.
Vulnerability Classification
The ministry identified around 315 districts potentially affected by weak monsoon, categorised by irrigation coverage:
| Category | Number of Districts | Irrigation Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| Most vulnerable | 111 | Less than 25% |
| Medium priority | 76 | Between 25% and 50% |
| Low priority | 128 | More than 50% (dam/other sources) |
Among the most vulnerable, Maharashtra has 22 districts and Chhattisgarh has 10 districts, the ministry said.
Government Response
Chouhan said the ministry is reviewing sowing progress and rainfall with officials from the agriculture ministry, ICAR, Rural Development Ministry and India Meteorological Department (IMD). State-wise contingency plans have been drawn up recommending alternative crops suited to deficient rainfall. States including Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Bihar, Jharkhand, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha have been directed to promote pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals that require less water, and to encourage short-duration, climate-resilient seed varieties.
"There is a gap in rainfall. We need to suggest to farmers to go for alternative crops. We will not let farm fields remain empty," Chouhan said, adding that availability of seeds and fertilisers is adequate for the kharif season.
The ministry has set up an El Nino Monitoring Cell, while its Crop Weather Watch Group is also tracking real-time information and issuing advisories.
ICAR Recommendations
The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) has prepared comprehensive guidelines for states based on monsoon delay duration:
- Delay of 1-2 weeks: Continue with normal crops using short-duration varieties; encourage seed treatment, increased seed rate, closer spacing, and ridge-and-furrow planting.
- Delay of 2-4 weeks: Plant drought-tolerant alternatives such as millets, green gram (moong), black gram (urad), cowpea (huar), and sesame.
- Delay exceeding 4 weeks: Shift focus to millets, pulses, and fodder crops.
For mid-season drought conditions, ICAR advised promoting moisture conservation practices such as inter-cultivation, mulching, earthing-up, dust mulching, and foliar sprays of nutrients. Where possible, life-saving irrigation should be provided using farm ponds and community reservoirs.
Rainfall Deficit Data
As of June 23, the all-India seasonal rainfall deficit stood at 42% (vs. 43% on June 22), according to IMD data. Regional deficits are significant:
| Region | Deficit (%) |
|---|---|
| East & North-East | 40% |
| North-West | 19% |
| Central India | 64% |
| Southern Peninsula | 26% |
Only six states and four Union Territories have recorded normal or excess rainfall, while 22 states and four UTs are below normal.
For commodity traders and procurement teams, the prolonged deficit heightens supply risks for pulses, oilseeds, and coarse cereals from the upcoming kharif harvest. The government's push for alternative crops may mitigate some losses, but output of high-water-demand crops like paddy could face significant cuts. Traders should monitor weekly rainfall updates and state-level contingency plan execution to assess price implications for commodities such as moong, urad, and millets.
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