India's agricultural authorities have identified 77 paddy-growing districts and 65 maize-growing districts as highly vulnerable to El Nino-induced rainfall shocks, with historical data showing at least a 10% decline in production during previous El Nino years, according to a government assessment reported by The Hindu Business Line.
Vulnerability Mapping by ICAR
The Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) conducted the analysis based on crop loss data from the drought-bearing El Nino years of 2002, 2004, and 2009. The exercise created a district-level vulnerability map for key rain-fed crops, flagging 77 districts in paddy, 65 in maize, and 36 each in sorghum and millet as particularly susceptible to rainfall shocks associated with El Nino conditions, according to the report.
Historical Context and Current Outlook
Official sources told the publication that those three years are crucial for understanding monsoon impact, with rainfall deficits of 19% in 2002, 13% in 2004, and 23% in 2009. The resulting kharif season foodgrain (rice, nutri/course cereals, and pulses) production dropped by over 22% in 2002 and by 12% in both 2004 and 2009.
| Year | Rainfall Deficit | Kharif Foodgrain Production Drop |
|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 19% | >22% |
| 2004 | 13% | 12% |
| 2009 | 23% | 12% |
However, a former agriculture secretary said the current year's situation is not comparable to those years due to major expansion of area under assured irrigation, mainly through groundwater. He also noted that spatial distribution of rainfall needs to be monitored, citing the example of Odisha where monsoon is predicted to be normal in most districts this year.
Government Preparedness and Contingency Plans
The identification of these districts forms the basis of the Centre's preparedness strategy for the current monsoon season. States have been advised to implement crop-specific contingency measures and agronomic interventions to minimize yield losses in the event of significant rainfall deficiency, according to the report.
ICAR's Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) for 2026 state that "terminal drought generally coincides with reproductive stages and often led to severe yield reductions." In such situations, Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) will recommend applying life-saving irrigation wherever possible, along with foliar nutrient applications, and prioritization of catch crops in case of crop failures. Severely affected crops can be harvested as fodder.
ICAR's Hyderabad-based Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA) has started meetings with agriculture departments of states to sensitize stakeholders on potential El Nino impacts and adaptation strategies. So far, CRIDA has held the first round of meetings with major rice growers including Bihar, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Assam, Punjab, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal, according to sources.
Monsoon Deficit and Production Targets
The Centre has fixed a production target of 176.16 million tonnes (mt) of foodgrains for the current kharif season, comprising 123.15 mt of rice, 31.04 mt of maize, 13.56 mt of nutri cereals, and 8.4 mt of pulses. However, the India Meteorological Department reported on Wednesday that monsoon rainfall across the country during June 1-24 was 42% lower than normal, with only 21% of geographical areas receiving average rainfall.
For commodity traders and procurement teams, the potential for reduced yields in key paddy and maize districts signals a supply risk for the upcoming kharif harvest, which could tighten domestic availability and support prices if the monsoon deficit persists or El Nino conditions materialize.
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