India's grain reserves have surged to historic levels, with rice stocks hitting a record high and wheat inventories reaching a five-year peak, according to official data. The buildup strengthens the country's food security position and provides the government greater flexibility to manage domestic supplies and exports, despite looming El Niño concerns.
Record Rice Stocks
State reserves of rice, including unmilled paddy, stood at 68.43 million metric tonnes as of June 1, according to official data cited by Business-Today. This represents a 15% year-on-year increase and is far above the government's July 1 target of 13.5 million tonnes.
| Commodity | Stocks (million tonnes) | Official Target (million tonnes) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rice (incl. paddy) | 68.43 | 13.5 | +15% |
| Wheat | 53.41 | 27.6 | Highest since 2021 |
Wheat Inventories Surge
Wheat stocks reached 53.41 million tonnes, nearly double the official target of 27.6 million tonnes and the highest level since 2021, as reported by Business-Today. The government procured around 35 million tonnes of wheat from farmers, exceeding expectations, according to Reuters.
"The government surprised the market by procuring 35 million tons of wheat. It is now in a comfortable position and can release stocks aggressively into the market to keep prices in check," a Mumbai-based dealer told Reuters.
El Niño Threat and Export Confidence
The UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has warned that the newly established El Niño phase could weaken India's summer monsoon, putting rainfed crops such as rice and maize under stress. "In Asia, the risk extends beyond fields to global markets," the FAO said, noting that agricultural drought risks extend across South and Southeast Asia.
Despite these concerns, India's record rice stockpile could help the world's largest rice exporter maintain shipments. India accounts for around 40% of global rice exports and removed its last remaining rice export restrictions in March 2025.
"Rice stocks are more than adequate. That should give the government the confidence to continue exports despite forecasts of below-normal rainfall, which could affect production," a New Delhi-based dealer at a global trading firm said, as cited by Reuters.
Record Production in 2025-26
India's rice and wheat production touched record levels in the 2025-26 crop year, reaching 154.02 million tonnes and 120.66 million tonnes respectively, aided by favourable monsoon conditions and expanded acreage, according to Business-Today.
Implications for Commodity Markets
For commodity traders and procurement teams, India's ample grain inventories reduce the risk of sudden export bans or price spikes, even as El Niño threatens the upcoming kharif season. The government's ability to release stocks into the open market could cap domestic price inflation, while export flows from India are likely to continue, providing stability to global rice and wheat markets. The FAO's warning on monsoon risks, however, keeps the focus on weather developments in the coming months.
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