India's monsoon deficit has narrowed sharply from 38% below normal to 15% below normal as of Wednesday, according to a report by Capital 360. The improvement comes on the back of strong weekly rainfall that was 45% above normal, with the country receiving 83.6 mm of rainfall against the normal 57.5 mm during the week ended July 8. However, the report cautioned that Kharif sowing remains significantly behind last year's pace, posing a key risk for the agriculture sector.
Rainfall Improvement and Geographical Spread
The report noted that the improvement in rainfall has widened its geographical spread. Currently, 25 of India's 36 meteorological subdivisions have received excess or normal rainfall, and nearly 49% of districts recorded excess or normal rainfall. This marks a significant recovery from the previous week when the deficit was far more widespread.
Kharif Sowing Lag
Despite the rainfall improvement, Kharif sowing remains a concern. As of Sunday, total Kharif sowing was 20.8% lower year-on-year. The report provided a breakdown by crop:
| Crop Category | Year-on-Year Change in Sowing |
|---|---|
| Oilseeds | -39.3% |
| Cotton | -22.9% |
| Pulses | -21.8% |
| Coarse Cereals | -16.4% |
| Rice | -13.1% |
| Sugarcane | +1.6% |
Sugarcane was the only major crop to record a marginal increase in sowing, up 1.6% year-on-year.
Reservoir Levels
The report also noted an improvement in reservoir levels. As of Thursday, live reservoir storage stood at 32.4% of total capacity, improving from the previous week. However, storage remained 36% lower than the same period last year, though it was 7.5% higher than the 10-year average.
Implications for Commodity Markets
For commodity traders and agribusiness executives, the ongoing weakness in sowing could tighten supplies of key crops like oilseeds, cotton, and pulses, potentially supporting prices in the coming months. The sharp pickup in rainfall has improved the overall monsoon situation, but the pace of Kharif sowing and rainfall distribution across regions will remain important factors to watch. These factors are expected to influence agricultural activity during the season, according to the Capital 360 report.
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