Indian maize farmers are adjusting their crop choices in response to anticipated below-normal rainfall conditions driven by El Niño. This climatic phenomenon is expected to impact the 2026 kharif season, prompting strategic shifts in crop cultivation.
El Niño's Impact on Agriculture
Historically, El Niño has posed significant risks to India's agriculture, with 7 out of 16 El Niño years since 1950 resulting in below-normal monsoons. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts below-normal rainfall for most of the country, except for the western Himalayan region and parts of the north-east.
Crop Shifts Across Regions
Farmers are making strategic crop choices based on rainfall outlook and market conditions. In Madhya Pradesh, the largest soybean grower, cotton acreage is expected to increase. Punjab sees a shift towards paddy, Rajasthan towards soybean, and Telangana towards chilli and cotton. Southern Karnataka is moving towards ragi.
"Amidst anticipation of below normal rainfall conditions, farmers will be prompted to make more strategic crop choices," said Pushan Sharma, lead author of the Crisil report.
Production and Market Outlook
In 2025-26, India's maize output was a record 55.09 million tonnes, up 27% from the previous year. However, the government has set a lower target of 52.50 million tonnes for 2026-27 due to expected rainfall deficits. ICICI Bank reports significant risks to food production, particularly in the Monsoon Core Zone, which is likely to see reduced rainfall.
| Crop | 2025-26 Output (mt) | 2026-27 Target (mt) |
|---|---|---|
| Maize | 55.09 | 52.50 |
Future Considerations
The shift in crop cultivation is driven by both climatic and economic factors. As farmers adapt to changing conditions, the market will closely monitor rainfall patterns and crop yields. Upcoming reports from the USDA and FAO will provide further insights into global agricultural trends.
