Farmgate prices of good-quality maize (corn) are likely to hover around ₹2,200-2,400 per quintal during the harvest season in October-November, according to the Tamil Nadu Agricultural University (TNAU). The forecast, released on July 8, 2026, is based on an analysis of farmgate prices at the Udumalpet Agricultural Produce Marketing Committee (APMC) yard over the past 15 years, conducted by TNAU’s Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS) under its Price Forecasting Scheme. The projected price is broadly in line with the minimum support price (MSP) of ₹2,410 per quintal announced by the Centre for the 2026-27 kharif marketing season.
Production and Acreage
According to the Third Advance Estimates of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, maize is cultivated on about 10.74 million hectares in India, with production estimated at 55.10 million tonnes. Tamil Nadu is a major producer, with 3.3 million tonnes from 0.54 million hectares. The key producing districts in the state include Salem, Namakkal, Dindigul, Perambalur, Ariyalur, Villupuram, and Tiruppur. Tamil Nadu meets only about 50% of its domestic maize requirement, with the remainder sourced from other states, making it vulnerable to supply disruptions.
Monsoon and Supply Risks
The India Meteorological Department has forecast below-normal rainfall during the current South-West monsoon due to the El Nino climate phenomenon, which could affect production in key maize-growing states such as Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, and West Bengal. However, the university noted that these climate-induced supply risks, coupled with last year’s bumper harvest, are being offset by the West Asian crisis and rising fuel costs, which are disrupting maize exports and domestic trade. A deficient monsoon could make maize prices highly volatile, TNAU warned.
Demand Drivers
Maize has been gaining both nutritional and commercial importance, driven by rising demand from the animal feed industry, industrial applications, ethanol blending under the National Policy on Biofuels, and increasing use in bioplastics. These factors support the projected price range despite potential supply-side headwinds.
Key Data at a Glance
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast price range (farmgate) | ₹2,200–2,400/quintal | TNAU CARDS |
| MSP for 2026-27 kharif | ₹2,410/quintal | Government of India |
| Maize area in India | 10.74 million ha | Third Advance Estimates |
| Maize production in India | 55.10 million tonnes | Third Advance Estimates |
| Tamil Nadu production | 3.3 million tonnes | TNAU |
| Tamil Nadu area | 0.54 million ha | TNAU |
| Tamil Nadu self-sufficiency | ~50% | TNAU |
The interplay between monsoon uncertainty, global geopolitical tensions, and rising input costs will be critical for traders and procurement teams to monitor as the harvest season approaches. The alignment with MSP provides a floor, but volatility could spike if El Nino intensifies.
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