According to the Domestic and Export Market Intelligence Cell (DEMIC) of the Centre for Agricultural and Rural Development Studies (CARDS), Tamil Nadu Agricultural University (TNAU), groundnut prices during the upcoming harvest season are likely to rule at around ₹65-70 a kg. The pre-sowing price forecast, published on August 23, 2026, is based on an analysis of groundnut prices at the Tindivanam and Sevur regulated markets over the past 25 years, along with a market survey. TNAU has advised farmers to factor in the price outlook while taking their sowing decisions.
Pre-sowing price forecast
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Forecast price at harvest | ₹65-70 per kg |
| Forecast basis | 25-year price analysis at Tindivanam and Sevur regulated markets |
| Additional input | Market survey |
| Publisher | DEMIC, CARDS, TNAU |
The estimate is meant to inform farmers' sowing decisions, the university reported. The forecast was prepared by DEMIC, part of CARDS at TNAU.
India's groundnut output
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare, India is the world's second-largest groundnut producer. In 2024-25, the country harvested 119.42 lakh tonnes from 57.62 lakh hectares, with productivity at 2,073 kg/hectare. The area under the crop has increased 3.17 per cent in 2025-26. However, trade sources expect arrivals to decline amid recent fluctuations in the monsoon.
| Metric (2024-25) | India | Tamil Nadu |
|---|---|---|
| Area | 57.62 lakh hectares | 3.15 lakh hectares |
| Production | 119.42 lakh tonnes | 7.69 lakh tonnes |
| Productivity | 2,073 kg/hectare | 2,439 kg/hectare |
Source: Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers' Welfare; Tamil Nadu figures as reported in the TNAU forecast.
Tamil Nadu's groundnut districts
Tamil Nadu is among the major groundnut-producing States, with 3.15 lakh hectares under the crop and production of 7.69 lakh tonnes in 2024-25. Productivity in the State stood at 2,439 kg a hectare. The major groundnut-growing districts are:
- Thiruvannamalai
- Namakkal
- Villupuram
- Salem
- Cuddalore
- Ariyalur
Though the crop is cultivated throughout the year depending on rainfall and water availability, sowing is concentrated between June and August in most districts.
End-use and demand
Groundnut is primarily used for oil extraction in Tamil Nadu, while its oilcake is an important high-protein livestock feed, according to TNAU. The crop is also consumed directly and used in confectionery products. These end-uses underpin demand for the new harvest that the price forecast covers.
Outlook for arrivals
Trade sources expect arrivals to decline amid recent fluctuations in the monsoon, according to the TNAU report.
With the forecast range of ₹65-70 a kg, TNAU's DEMIC has given farmers, traders and procurement teams a reference point ahead of the harvest. The interaction between monsoon-driven arrivals and the expanded crop area will determine whether market prices settle within the projected band.
Sources:
