The UK heatwave is disrupting the food supply chain from field to supermarket shelf. More than half of England has entered drought conditions, according to a declaration by the Environment Agency last week, and the British Retail Consortium is warning that extreme weather could force prices up, BBC News reported. Supermarket chillers are working in overdrive to keep produce cool, shutters are being pulled down to keep out hot air, fridges and freezers in some stores have stopped working, and certain goods are being taken off the shelves on the hottest days.
Supply chain stress builds
BBC News explains the supply chain using a loaf of bread as an example:
- The grain is grown, harvested, milled and stored until it is ready to be taken to a factory.
- Those ingredients are used to bake and package the bread.
- The bread is taken to warehouses.
- It eventually ends up on supermarket shelves.
Each stage of that process incurs expenses such as transport and storage, and rising costs at any step could end up in the product you buy being more expensive, the BBC reported.
The extreme weather is already reshaping this year's harvest. Last week, farmers and flour producers said they were adapting to the challenges of dealing with the earliest harvest for 50 years. The National Farmers' Union has warned there could be a shortage of certain food products if current drought conditions continue.
Farmers: quality up, yields down
Simon Willis, chief executive of Cambridge-based grain storage co-operative Camgrain, told BBC Radio Cambridgeshire that harvest usually starts in early August, but after a very dry spring it has already been and gone. "This year's very dry harvest will mean that the quality will be good but the yield will be down," he said. Drought conditions mean this year's crops have not been able to reach their full potential, he added.
Academic: a resilient chain with a weak link
Prof Manoj Dora, director of the Centre for Intelligent Supply Chains at Anglia Ruskin University, which has campuses in Cambridgeshire and Essex, said "one week of hot weather will not make a loaf of bread more expensive." But he says prices could rise if supplies of crops run out, largely because of how it would affect the very beginning of the supply chain.
We may see that meat, milk, eggs, and chicken will be impacted by [a lack of] animal feed.
"Across different food products, prices could surge if we do not manage these things immediately," he said. Dora describes the UK's supply chain as "resilient", so the effects of the heatwave may not be felt immediately. "We need to start thinking of the long term by reconfiguring our supply chain in terms of locations and transportation, and by supporting the farmers," he added.
Heatwave impact across the chain
| Supply chain stage | Normal process | Reported heatwave impact |
|---|---|---|
| Farming and harvest | Grain grown, harvested, milled, stored | Earliest harvest for 50 years; drought cuts yields |
| Processing and packaging | Ingredients baked and packaged | Rising costs at any stage could raise final product price |
| Warehousing and logistics | Goods taken to warehouses | Transport and storage expenses incurred at each step |
| Supermarket retailing | Products on shelves | Freezers out of order; goods removed on hottest days |
With the earliest harvest in 50 years now complete, buyers will be watching whether drought conditions persist. The National Farmers' Union has warned of shortages of certain food products if they do, and Prof Dora said prices could surge across different food products if the situation is not managed immediately, even though the UK supply chain is "resilient".
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