Topic
climate
Commodities Global Wheat Output May Drop 23 Million Tonnes Next Season on Iran War, El Nino
Global wheat production is projected to decline by 23 million tonnes in 2026-27 as El Niño and the Iran conflict curb acreage and raise fertiliser costs, according to The Hindu BusinessLine. IGC pegs output at 821 mt versus 844 mt this season, with ending stocks falling to 279 mt. CBOT wheat futures trade near $6.54 per bushel as analysts see a price floor from supply risks.
Commodities NOAA Predicts 97% Chance Strong El Niño Will Persist Through March 2027
The US Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of NOAA has released an ENSO update forecasting a 97% chance that the current strong El Niño will continue into early spring 2027. The report details ocean temperature anomalies, atmospheric circulation shifts, and probability breakdowns, critical for agricultural and energy commodity traders.
Logistics Europe's Great Rivers Run Dry: Danube and Rhine Low Water Disrupts Commercial Shipping and Supply Chains
Exceptionally low water levels on the Danube and Rhine rivers are disrupting commercial shipping, forcing barges to sail partially loaded, and increasing freight rates by over 50% on key routes. The drought is impacting grain exports from Romania, chemical transport in Germany, and nuclear power operations in France, with experts warning low-water disruptions may become more frequent.
Commodities El Niño Warning: Why India Must Regenerate Its Agriculture Now
El Niño, caused by warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, weakens the Indian monsoon, leading to below-normal rainfall and dry spells. Indian agriculture has lost resilience due to synthetic inputs, monocropping, and soil degradation. Regenerative agriculture—restoring soil health, biodiversity, water management, and community institutions—is key to climate-proofing farms.
Commodities Wheat Production Likely Affected by Climate This Year, Experts Warn at Conclave
At the Wheat Products Promotion Society CEO Conclave in Varanasi, experts warned that El Nino could impact wheat production this year, with delayed kharif harvest and potential drought. Despite geopolitical tensions, global wheat markets remain well supplied, anchored by Black Sea region stocks, limiting price rises.
Commodities El Niño Disrupts Pacific Fisheries, Canceling Peru Anchovy Season and Boosting Tuna Catches
The 2026 'super' El Niño is already affecting Pacific fisheries dramatically. Peru has effectively canceled its anchovy fishing season due to warm waters driving fish deeper, while Southern California sees record tuna catches. Seafood prices are rising in local markets, with Peruvian jack mackerel and corvina prices doubling.
Technology Microsoft Emissions Jump 25% as AI Data Center Expansion Fuels Greenhouse Gas Rise
Microsoft’s greenhouse gas emissions rose 25% in the last fiscal year, driven primarily by data center expansion for AI workloads. The company matched 100% of electricity with carbon-free sources but has signed new fossil-fuel-powered deals. Google and Amazon reported similar double-digit increases, highlighting the sustainability challenge of the AI race.
Technology Europe Faces Air-Conditioning Revolution as Heat Waves Intensify and Demand Soars
As Europe swelters under record heat waves, demand for air-conditioning is surging, sparking a debate about sustainable cooling. With only 20% of Europeans owning ACs, compared to 90% in the US, the continent faces a critical choice: invest in efficient, equitable cooling or lock into high-energy consumption. The IEA predicts that electricity demand for cooling could more than triple by 2050, while existing units already contribute 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Commodities Weak Monsoon May Intensify Water Stress, Threaten Kharif Sowing: NSE Report
A weak southwest monsoon could heighten water stress in India and threaten kharif sowing over the next fortnight, according to an NSE Market Pulse report. The report warns of a fresh supply-side shock and highlights rising temperatures and increased rainfall variability, even as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may partly offset El Nino effects.
Commodities El Nino Weakens India Hydropower to Steepest Drop Since Feb 2024, Strains Grid
India's hydropower generation fell more than 20% in June, the steepest year-on-year drop since February 2024, as El Nino conditions caused a 38% rainfall deficit. Reservoir levels are critically low, forcing greater reliance on coal-fired power. The weak monsoon also hurt kharif crop sowing, with oilseeds acreage down 39% and cotton down 23%.
Commodities Policy, energy, climate, geopolitics to influence global veg oil sector: IVPA
The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers' Association (IVPA) President Sudhakar Desai, speaking at the 17th China International Conference on Oils and Oilseeds in Shanghai, projected a 3.1% increase in global vegetable oil production to 212.5 million tonnes in 2025-26, with consumption rising 1.9% to 211 million tonnes. He highlighted that policy decisions, energy markets, climate, and geopolitics are increasingly driving market direction, with Indonesia's B50 biodiesel mandate set to divert 14.6 million tonnes of palm oil to biofuels. Desai also provided price outlooks for crude palm oil, soybean oil, and sunflower oil, and detailed India's edible oil import scenario of 16.8 million tonnes in 2025-26.
Commodities Central India faces critical two-week sowing window as monsoon revival offers brief relief
Satellite imagery shows monsoon revival along India's west coast, offering a two-week window (June 22-July 6) for sowing in rain-deficient Central India. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) project rainfall weakening significantly after July 6, with deficits exceeding 60% in parts of the region. Farmers face uncertainty as the best sowing opportunity narrows.
Logistics Shipowners and Airlines Urge EU to Use ETS Revenues for Green Fuel Transition
European shipowners and airlines jointly called on the EU to channel Emissions Trading System (ETS) revenues back into shipping and aviation for green fuels and technologies. Shipping contributes around €9bn and airlines €2.3bn annually, but the funds are not being reinvested, risking decarbonisation efforts. Europe lags Asia in fuel production capacity.
Commodities Kashmir apple farming under strain as erratic weather drives up crop risk
Erratic weather in Kashmir Valley has led to multiple hailstorms in June 2026, causing significant damage to apple orchards in key districts like Kulgam and Shopian. Growers report an unprecedented frequency of hailstorms, with estimated crop damage of 70-80%, while farmers seek government support for protective measures such as anti-hail nets.
Commodities Germany Reconsiders Coal Phase-Out as Gas Prices Surge Amid Iran Conflict
Germany, Europe's largest coal power user, is reconsidering its coal phase-out due to a surge in global gas prices following the US-Israel conflict with Iran. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has signalled a potential loosening of phase-out plans to ensure affordable electricity for industry. Energy firm LEAG welcomes the shift, while environmental researchers urge a faster transition to renewables.
Logistics Shipping Braces for Monster El Niño as NOAA Warns of Record-Intensity Event Threatening Global Trade Lanes
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared El Niño, with an 88% chance of reaching strong intensity by November–January, posing direct risks to shipping via Panama Canal draft restrictions, altered hurricane patterns, and shifts in dry bulk trade flows. The Panama Canal Authority has already pre-emptively reduced neopanamax draft to 49.5 feet effective July 3, citing potential El Niño development.
Commodities Monsoon delay in Gujarat deepens farm risk; crop-loss compensation crosses ₹22,733 crore in a decade
Gujarat has recorded an 83% rainfall deficit as of June 16, 2026, with nine districts in Saurashtra reporting a 100% deficit. The state has paid out ₹22,733 crore in crop-loss compensation between FY16 and FY26, with nearly half paid in FY26 alone. Farmers have sown 4.27 lakh hectares so far, led by cotton and groundnut, but moisture stress threatens early crops.
Commodities APEC Climate Center Upgrades El Niño to Strong; Indian Monsoon Faces Elevated Risk
The APEC Climate Centre (APCC) has upgraded its El Niño outlook to a strong event, with a 100% probability of persistence from July through December. The Niño 3.4 index is forecast to reach 1.97°C in July and 3.14°C by December. For India, the south-west monsoon faces elevated risk with projected rainfall deficits up to 53.8% during July-September, though regional variations exist. The outlook improves for October-December.
Technology Many new AI data centers will be built on US drought-hit areas
A new report reveals that 517 out of 809 planned US data centers are located in drought-hit areas, raising questions over water and power supply. Only 4% of water demand is direct cooling, while 96% is indirect from power generation and semiconductor fabrication. Local opposition is growing, with Seattle banning new data centers for a year.
Commodities El Niño Onset Confirmed: 63% Chance of Super Event by Winter
NOAA officially declared El Niño onset on June 11, 2026, with a 63% chance of reaching super El Niño strength by winter. The event threatens drought in key agricultural regions including Indonesia, the Sahel, and Southern Africa, while India's monsoon forecast has been lowered to 90% of normal.
Technology Microsoft inks 37,000-ton carbon removal deal with Indian startup Alt Carbon
Microsoft signed a three-year agreement to purchase nearly 37,000 metric tons of carbon removal credits from Alt Carbon, an Indian startup using enhanced rock weathering. The deal marks Microsoft's first enhanced-rock weathering purchase in Asia and highlights the increasing role of Global South suppliers in the carbon removal market.
Commodities May 2026 SST Ties for Second Warmest on Record
May 2026 recorded the second warmest sea surface temperature globally, at 20.90°C, just behind May 2024. This trend is significant for energy markets as it influences weather patterns and energy demand.
Commodities Monsoon Stalls: Rain Deficit Deepens in West India
The monsoon has stalled along India's coast, leading to a significant rain deficit in West India. Key regions like Saurashtra and Kutch are experiencing over 60% below-normal rainfall.
Commodities India's Monsoon Boosted by IoD Amid El Nino Concerns
India's monsoon season could see improved rainfall due to a potential positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IoD) event, despite the looming threat of El Nino. The Bureau of Meteorology reports sea surface temperatures have crossed the El Nino threshold, but a positive IoD could enhance monsoon rains.
Commodities Monsoon Slowdown Expected in North-West India Due to Western Disturbance
The monsoon in north-west India is expected to slow down due to a western disturbance, affecting agricultural activities. Heavy rainfall remains concentrated along the west coast, but a slowdown is anticipated in the coming days.
Commodities Monsoon Advances Amid Strengthening El Niño Signals
The Indian monsoon has advanced further, covering key agricultural regions, while El Niño signals strengthen, potentially impacting crop yields. Traders are closely monitoring these developments.
Commodities Delayed Monsoon Affects Indian Agriculture Markets
The delayed monsoon in India, influenced by El Niño, is impacting agricultural commodity markets. Key regions like Gujarat and Rajasthan face below-normal rainfall, affecting crop forecasts.
Commodities India's South-West Monsoon Begins Over Kerala
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Commodities Monsoon Relief Expected in Tamil Nadu
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Commodities India Lowers Foodgrain Output Target Amid Monsoon Concerns
India has reduced its foodgrain output target for the 2026-27 crop year to 373.93 million tonnes, citing concerns over a below-normal monsoon forecast. The decision reflects potential impacts from El Nino, affecting rice and maize production.
Trade Kerala Monsoon Onset Delayed, Rainfall 55% Below Normal
The India Meteorological Department forecasts a delayed monsoon onset over Kerala on June 4, with initial rainfall 55% below normal. This weather pattern could impact agricultural trade and import/export activities in India.
Commodities Monsoon Delays Impact Kerala's Agricultural Markets
The delayed monsoon onset in Kerala is affecting agricultural commodity markets, with potential impacts on crop yields and prices. Traders are closely monitoring weather forecasts and market reactions.
Commodities Below-Normal Monsoon Forecast Threatens Indian Agriculture
The India Meteorological Department forecasts below-normal monsoon rainfall and above-normal heatwaves in June, impacting key agricultural regions. This development could significantly affect commodity markets, particularly for crops like rice and wheat.
Business Monsoon Delays Could Impact Indian Agriculture and Economy
The delayed onset of the monsoon in India, as forecasted by the IMD, could have significant implications for the agricultural sector and broader economic conditions. This delay is attributed to disrupted atmospheric conditions and a developing storm system.
Commodities El Niño Threatens Indian Monsoon, Impact on Crop Prices Looms
The potential emergence of El Niño by June, as forecasted by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, poses a significant threat to the Indian monsoon, potentially affecting crop yields and prices. The Indian Meteorological Department predicts below-normal rainfall, which could lead to lower production of key crops like paddy and pulses.
Trade Monsoon Alert: Sri Lanka Hit, Kerala Next
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Commodities El Nino Threatens India's Kharif Season Amid Price Concerns
India braces for potential El Nino impacts on the kharif season, with contingency plans in place to mitigate adverse effects. The government aims to ensure seed availability and explore crop diversification.
Commodities India Prepares for El Niño Impact on Kharif Season Amid Monsoon Concerns
India's Agriculture Minister announced contingency plans to mitigate El Niño's potential impact on the Kharif season. With monsoon rains predicted to be below normal, the government is ensuring seed availability for alternative cropping strategies.
Commodities India's Monsoon Forecast: Below Normal at 90% LPA in 2026
The India Meteorological Department forecasts a below-normal monsoon for 2026, with rainfall at 90% of the long period average. This could significantly impact agricultural output in key regions.
Trade Monsoon Delays Raise Concerns in Lakshadweep
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Commodities Wheat Prices Surge Amid Global Supply Concerns
Wheat prices on the CBOT have surged to $7.50/bushel for the December contract, marking a 5% increase from last week and a 12% rise year-over-year. The price hike is driven by adverse weather conditions in key growing regions and ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting exports.
Trade Western Disturbance May Impact India's Monsoon
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Commodities India's Monsoon Shortfall Threatens Agricultural Output
India's monsoon is projected at 90% of the long-period average, marking the driest period in 11 years. This shortfall could significantly impact agricultural output.
Commodities India Prepares for Below-Normal Monsoon Impact on Agriculture
India's Agriculture Minister urges states to prepare for a below-normal monsoon, potentially affecting the Kharif season. The IMD forecasts a 90% monsoon of the long-period average, raising concerns over agricultural output.