SpaceX raised a record-breaking $75 billion through its IPO last week, and two more mega IPOs—OpenAI and Anthropic—are expected soon, according to Business Today. Yves Bonzon, group chief investment officer (CIO) of Julius Baer, the Zurich-headquartered global wealth manager, warned that the successful closure of all three offers could mean the global market has reached its top in the current bull phase, and a major slide could soon follow.
Historical Parallels and Market Timing
Bonzon drew historical parallels to illustrate his concern. "It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs went public just before the 2000 bear market. Blackstone went public just before the 2008 crisis," he told Business Today. The table below summarises these precedents alongside the current slate of big-ticket IPOs:
| Company | IPO Timing | Associated Market Event |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs | 2000 | Preceded dot-com bear market |
| Blackstone | 2008 | Preceded global financial crisis |
| SpaceX | Completed (2026) | Potential market top if OpenAI & Anthropic succeed |
| OpenAI | Upcoming | Potential market top |
| Anthropic | Upcoming | Potential market top |
Current Market Conditions
Business Today reported that the Dow Jones, Nasdaq Composite, and S&P are all in record territories. SpaceX is already listed with a market cap of about $2 trillion, while OpenAI and Anthropic are seeking valuations in the range of $1 trillion to $2 trillion each.
Expert Warning on Market Top
"My best guess is that when (all) these companies successfully complete their IPOs, we will be in the vicinity of a major market top. There is simply too much money at stake now," Bonzon said. As group CIO, Bonzon manages assets worth $625 billion (about Rs 59.6 lakh crore) at Julius Baer. In addition, the discretionary and in-house fund assets managed by the CIO office exceed $100 billion (about Rs 9.5 lakh crore).
India Investment Strategy
Bonzon also discussed Julius Baer's approach to India. The firm started buying Indian stocks again in July 2025, and the strategy worked until the West Asia war started in late February. "We entered the allocation in June of last year. The timing appeared favourable, and it seemed to be working out well through Jan and Feb, until the conflict in (West Asia) introduced additional oil price risk," he said. He believes if crude oil settles back into the $70-per-barrel range, India, along with China, could be at the top of the list of re-rating candidates. "Unless there is a fundamental change in govt policy direction...we are unlikely to trade in and out of this allocation. Once we have a position, we hold it strategically," Bonzon added.
Talking about India's strategic importance, Bonzon said, "Asia is our second home market, with the same strategic importance as Switzerland. India is a strategic growth market for Julius Baer, and we have the advantage of an onshore presence, and the brand is well recognised among our target audience in the country." He also highlighted that Julius Baer is the only global wealth manager of scale, outside the US, that has neither an asset management operation nor an investment banking division, calling it a "genuinely unique positioning" especially in the ultra-high-net-worth segment.
Implications for Capital Markets and Trade Finance
For CFOs, treasury directors, and trade finance professionals, Bonzon's caution carries direct relevance. A market top preceded by massive IPOs could signal tighter liquidity, higher cost of capital, and increased volatility in equity and debt markets. Large fundraisings by SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic may crowd out other issuers or inflate valuations, raising the risk for trade finance instruments tied to equity performance or counterparty credit. The historical pattern of big-ticket IPOs before bear markets underscores the need for vigilance in hedging strategies and capital allocation.
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