India's goods exports rose nearly 15% during the first two-and-a-half months of the current financial year (2026-27), sustaining the momentum seen in April, according to commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal.
"Even now, if we see April, May and 14 days of June. I have data until June 14, it (exports growth) is 15%," Goyal said during an interaction with chartered accountants in Mumbai. The growth has been aided by strong oil exports, driven by high prices of crude and petroleum products. Goyal expects the momentum to continue, supported by trade agreements being signed.
Upcoming Free Trade Agreements
Goyal outlined a timeline of free trade agreements (FTAs) that are expected to further boost exports:
- UK FTA: Will be operational from July 15, 2026.
- EU FTA: Will be signed by December 2026 and become effective by February–March 2027.
- Switzerland, Norway, and others: Already effective since October 2025.
- US trade deal: Talks are underway, with USTR Jaimeson Greer arriving in New Delhi for negotiations on Tuesday and Wednesday.
- Canada: Prime Minister Mark Carney indicated keenness to conclude a bilateral trade deal this year during a meeting with PM Narendra Modi.
- Kenya: Has shown interest in an FTA with India.
- South African Customs Union: India is expected to soon start talks for a trade agreement, the first with Africa.
| FTA Partner | Stage | Effective Date / Timeline |
|---|---|---|
| UK | Signed | Operational from July 15, 2026 |
| EU | To be signed by Dec 2026 | Effective Feb–Mar 2027 |
| Switzerland, Norway etc. | Already effective | Since October 2025 |
| US | Under negotiation | Talks ongoing (June 2026) |
| Canada | Keen to conclude | By end of 2026 |
| Kenya | Interest expressed | Talks not yet started |
| South African Customs Union | Talks to begin | First Africa FTA |
Trade Policy and Tariff Developments
On the US front, additional tariffs of 10% imposed by the Trump administration after the earlier "reciprocal tariffs" were termed illegal by the US Supreme Court are due to expire next month. A deal is expected to help roll out new tariffs, likely based on Section 301 investigations launched by USTR against India and other countries. Goyal mentioned that the UK FTA will open almost zero-duty access to the European market: "Now with almost zero duty, almost the entire Europe market will be open for us."
India has signed a raft of FTAs, mostly with developed countries, after deciding not to join the RCEP trade bloc led by China.
Implications for Import/Export Professionals
For importers and exporters, the upcoming FTAs will significantly reduce tariffs on goods traded with the UK, EU, and other partners. The operationalisation of the UK FTA on July 15 means businesses should prepare to leverage zero-duty access for eligible products. The EU FTA timeline (signed by Dec 2026, effective Feb-Mar 2027) offers a medium-term horizon for strategic planning. The expiring US additional tariffs present a window for renewed market access negotiations, while ongoing talks with Canada, Kenya, and the South African Customs Union signal expanding opportunities.
Customs brokers and trade policy professionals should monitor the Section 301 investigation outcomes and the US trade deal negotiations closely, as they will determine future tariff structures. The sustained 15% export growth, driven by oil and supported by trade agreements, indicates a positive near-term outlook for India's trade sector.
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