Supply chain volatility has transitioned from a temporary disruption to a permanent feature of the operating environment, according to the 2026 State of Logistics Report released Tuesday. U.S. business logistics costs totaled $2.4 trillion in 2025, representing 7.8% of gross domestic product, a decline from $2.6 trillion and 8.7% of GDP in 2024, the report notes.
Five Structural Forces Reshape the Macro Outlook
The report, authored by Kearney and presented by Penske Logistics for the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals, identifies five persistent structural forces: asymmetrical global growth, tightening financial conditions, geoeconomic realignment, labor and productivity constraints, and energy price volatility.
Regional growth diverges sharply:
| Region | 2026 Growth Projection |
|---|---|
| United States | 2.2% – 2.4% |
| India & Southeast Asia | Leading (above 5%, estimate) |
| Europe | ~1% |
| GCC economies | -1.2% (contracting) |
The Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a defining chokepoint, carrying 20 million barrels of oil per day and 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade. Tariff policy added further pressure, changing on average every 1.5 weeks in 2025, creating what the report calls a “paralysis effect” on network reconfiguration decisions.
AI Crosses from Trial to Measurable Returns
Artificial intelligence in logistics has evolved beyond experiments and is now delivering measurable commercial returns in specific applications, the report found. It frames AI value creation through four capabilities: interpret, predict, recommend, and execute. Interpret and predict are the most mature, built on years of investment in visibility platforms and telematics. Physical AI—covering warehouse robotics and autonomous vehicles—is producing some of the industry’s most visible commercial milestones. Adoption remains uneven, widening the gap between organizations that have embedded AI into core workflows and those still confined to isolated point solutions.
Air Freight Divergence and Tariff Paralysis
Air freight posted record cargo volumes in 2025, with global demand up 3.4% year over year, but corridor-level results varied widely. Asia-Europe surged 10.3% as shippers rerouted around disruptions, while Asia-North America slipped 0.8%. Early 2026 showed acceleration, but the report warns that ongoing tariff volatility and geopolitical risks continue to pressure trade lanes. The combination of frequent policy shifts and chokepoint risks has made traditional demand recovery and network scale less reliable drivers of performance. Success now depends on building resilience, maintaining pricing discipline, and accelerating investments in digital tools and automation.
The report concludes that for carriers and shippers, the findings represent more than another difficult year. Traditional performance drivers are becoming less reliable. Instead, operators must focus on resilience, pricing discipline, and targeted automation investments to deliver measurable returns under volatile conditions.
Sources:
