Ocean container shipping rates from Asia to the United States have skyrocketed more than 230% since late February, according to Xeneta senior shipping analyst Emily Stausboll, as the Iran war and a rush by importers to beat new US tariffs sent spot rates to record levels. However, those rates are now beginning to soften, albeit much more slowly than they spiked.
Rate Spike and Current Softening
Since the start of the Iran crisis on Feb. 28, spot rates have surged 231% to $6,225 per forty-foot equivalent (FEU) for Far East to U.S. West Coast transit, and 234% to $8,846 per FEU for Far East to U.S. East Coast transit, FreightWaves reported. By comparison, rates to North Europe are up 135%, and to Mediterranean ports 96% over the same period.
"Spot rates on the major ocean container shipping trades out of the Far East continue to soften, edging down 1% into the U.S. West Coast, North Europe and Mediterranean while remaining flat into the U.S. East Coast," Stausboll said in an update. "There are likely to be further declines at the start of August, but the gradual softening shows how rates fall far slower than they increase during a market spike."
Trade Lane Breakdown
The following table summarizes spot rate increases since Feb. 28 on key trade lanes, according to Xeneta data:
| Trade Lane | Current Spot Rate (per FEU) | Increase Since Feb. 28 |
|---|---|---|
| Far East → US West Coast | $6,225 | +231% |
| Far East → US East Coast | $8,846 | +234% |
| Far East → North Europe | Not specified | +135% |
| Far East → Mediterranean | Not specified | +96% |
Capacity and Demand Dynamics
The demand decline follows a seeming early conclusion to the peak shipping season, which historically ran as late as October. This contrasts with 2025, when Trump’s chaotic tariff policies led to a late peak as cargo owners tried to wait out higher costs. At the same time, liner rate hikes and peak season surcharges set for mid-July failed to take hold amid the demand pullback.
Some blank sailings—postponements and cancellations by carriers—are beginning to appear on trades from Asia to North America, Stausboll noted. "But even if rates are starting to soften they are still at a very healthy level for carriers who will want to make sure they have capacity available to take advantage for as long as possible." She added, "No individual carrier wants to be the first to pull significant capacity when competitors can step in and take their volumes, which limits the scope for capacity management to reverse the spot rate decline."
Geopolitical Factors and Carrier Response
Carriers are expected to use the renewed conflict between Iran and the United States—and the associated rise in bunker costs—as justification to slow the rate decline through surcharges. However, Stausboll noted that "operationally, nothing has changed for container shipping this week because the vast majority of vessels were not transiting the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea before the latest escalation and they are not doing so now."
Maersk (OTC: AMKBY) and CMA CGM have restarted rotations on the Suez Canal–Red Sea route, but there are concerns that renewed attacks by Yemen’s Houthi on tankers this week—the first since September—may curtail those operations.
"The market fundamentals of rising capacity and cooling demand are working against carriers. While geopolitical tensions may slow the softening, they will not defy gravity," Stausboll concluded.
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