Container rates on the Asia-US East Coast trade lane surged to nearly $9,000 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU), up 8% from the previous week, as renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran threatens to upend ocean freight markets just as carriers were beginning to resume Red Sea transits, according to Freightos data and analysis from research chief Judah Levine.
The escalation follows Iranian strikes and US retaliation, with President Donald Trump declaring the fragile ceasefire 'over' during a NATO meeting in Turkey. The timing is particularly challenging for Maersk (OTC: AMKBY), which this week announced a gradual return to the Suez Canal–Red Sea route as part of its Gemini service with Hapag-Lloyd. A similar attempt earlier this year was halted as violence spread. Houthi rebels in Yemen have again warned of attacks on Israel-linked shipping, raising the risk of further diversions around the Cape of Good Hope.
Rate Benchmarks and Increases
| Trade Lane | Rate per FEU | Week-over-Week Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Asia-US West Coast | ~$6,700 | +8% (overall trans-Pacific) | GRI and PSS added ~$1,000 since July 1 |
| Asia-US East Coast | ~$9,000 | +8% | Total increase >$3,000 since late May |
| Asia-North Europe | ~$5,400 | Not specified | Europe rates surged despite record capacity |
| Asia-Mediterranean | >$7,000 | Not specified | Carriers planning another ~$2,000/FEU increase mid-July |
Levine noted that general rate increases (GRIs) and peak season surcharges (PSS) effective July 1 added about $1,000 per FEU across major east-west lanes, bringing total trans-Pacific increases to more than $3,000 per FEU since late May. “West Coast rates are around $6,700 per FEU and East Coast rates are leveling off near $9,000 per FEU,” Levine said.
Congestion and Backlogs
Significant congestion is building at major Asian hubs, including Shanghai, Ningbo, and Yantian in China, Singapore, Busan in South Korea, and Colombo in Sri Lanka. Levine warned that any rate relief could be slowed by backlogs of rolled cargo — containers delayed or shifted from schedule — as peak season volumes strain terminal capacity.
“Peak season demand continues to push rates higher – though the early start to this year’s busy season may mean volumes are already near their peak,” Levine wrote in a weekly note.
Fuel Cost Impact
While crude oil prices have fallen back to pre-war levels, refined product costs remain elevated. “Bunker and jet fuel prices are easing but remain 20%-30% above pre-war levels, as refined products take longer to normalize than crude,” Levine said. This adds pressure on carriers' operating costs, even as they deploy record capacity on the Asia-Europe lane.
Shipper Implications
With another $2,000/FEU in mid-July increases planned by carriers on the trans-Pacific, shippers should prepare for continued rate escalation. However, Levine cautioned that “early demand peaking could limit how much sticks.” The geopolitical situation remains fluid: any further disruption in the Middle East could force lines to avoid the Suez Canal entirely, extending voyage times and tightening capacity on both the Asia-Europe and trans-Pacific lanes.
Watch List
- Mid-July 2026: Scheduled GRIs and PSS of ~$2,000/FEU on trans-Pacific lanes.
- Iran-US conflict trajectory: Further escalation could force permanent Red Sea rerouting, exacerbating congestion and rate increases.
- Houthi responses: Renewed attacks on Israel-linked shipping could widen diversions.
- Fuel costs: Bunker and jet fuel prices, still 20-30% above pre-war levels, may rise again if crude supply tightens.
- Peak season timing: If volumes have already peaked, rate increases may not hold, but backlogs could prolong the tight market.
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