Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are tentatively returning a joint service to the Suez Canal, signalling a potential shift in global shipping patterns away from the Cape of Good Hope diversion that has persisted since late 2023. The structural change will see the AE15 service sail via the trans-Suez corridor instead of the longer Cape route, with the first sailing—the Majestic Maersk—departing Port Said on July 24, according to FreightWaves.
Return to the Suez
Maersk announced the move on Monday, stating: "This joint decision with Hapag-Lloyd comes following thorough assessments of the security situation in the Red Sea area, and marks a step towards a gradual return to the trans-Suez corridor." The carriers emphasized they will continue to monitor the security situation closely, with Gemini services dependent on ongoing stability in the Red Sea and absence of escalation.
The AE15 service—connecting Asia, the Mediterranean, and Europe—will have a rotation of Qingdao, Kwangyang, Ningbo, Tanjung Pelepas, Port Said, Damietta, Colombo, and Singapore. Maersk noted that the Suez-Red Sea route is "the fastest, most sustainable and most efficient way" to serve customers between Asia and Europe, offering more efficient transit times.
Capacity and Congestion Impact
A full return of services to the Suez could free an estimated 120 ships, or 1.7 million TEUs of capacity—about 5% of the global fleet, according to Linerlytica. Currently, 780 vessels with a combined capacity of 11.3 million TEUs continue to be routed via the Cape of Good Hope.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Vessels still on Cape route | 780 |
| Capacity on Cape route | 11.3M TEU |
| Ships freed if full return | ~120 |
| Capacity freed | 1.7M TEU (5% of global fleet) |
Suez Canal Revenue Losses
The diversions have come at a dire price for the Suez Canal, which accounts for approximately 15% of Egypt's total revenue. Toll revenue fell 40% in 2024, from $47 million to $28 million, with container tolls dropping 66% and vessel transits falling by about 38%, according to FreightWaves.
Other Carriers' Positions
French liner CMA CGM has expanded deployment on the Suez, operating five additional eastbound French Asia Line (FAL) 3 sailings in June connecting Asia and North Europe, alongside other services. Wan Hai of Taiwan remains the only other major carrier regularly using the route.
Watch List
- Houthi threats: Less than a month ago, the Houthi warned of more attacks on Red Sea shipping and recently threatened Saudi Arabia over alleged airspace violations.
- Geopolitical negotiations: The tentative peace amid US-Iran talks has mostly settled hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, but vessel traffic remains sparse.
- Security stability: Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd say their service depends on "the absence of any escalation in conflicts in the region."
Shippers should monitor whether other carriers follow Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, as a broader return to the Suez would reduce transit times, ease capacity constraints, and potentially lower freight rates on Asia-Europe lanes. However, the Houthi's continued warnings and past rapid withdrawals caution against assuming a permanent shift.
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