Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen steeply after a series of tit-for-tat strikes by the US and Iran following an attack on three tankers, according to maritime intelligence firm Kpler and the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC). Just 23 tankers and cargo ships crossed the critical Gulf waterway on Wednesday, down from 47 a week before, and far below the pre-conflict average of 138 ships per day reported by JMIC.
Timeline of Disruptions
The current crisis began after the US and Israel launched first strikes on Iran on 28 February, causing traffic to fall to a handful of ships per day. Iran effectively closed the strait by attacking ships and laying mines; the US responded with a blockade on all shipping to and from Iranian ports. A deal to end the war was signed on 17 June, including steps to reopen the strait and a US agreement to lift its naval blockade and ease sanctions on Iranian oil exports.
Following the agreement, overall traffic increased to a peak of 72 ships on 24 June, but then declined after two ships in Omani waters were struck on 25 and 27 June. President Donald Trump accused Iran of a "foolish violation" of the truce, and the US military conducted strikes on Iranian targets. Iran accused the US of violating the interim deal and said it struck targets linked to American forces.
The Latest Attacks
Three ships were attacked this week while using the US-recommended route through Omani waters: a Qatar-owned liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker, a Saudi-owned crude oil tanker, and a Liberia-flagged crude tanker. All three were crossing the strait close to the Omani route. Iran's top military command, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, reiterated: "The only safe route for the passage of commercial ships and oil tankers in the strait is the route determined by the Islamic Republic of Iran."
After the 17 June deal, the JMIC recommended ships take a different route through Omani waters in the south. The number using the Omani route grew to a peak of 28 vessels on 25 June, overtaking the Iranian route. Then attacks on 25 and 27 June in Omani waters caused traffic to slump, and the latest attacks have further reduced crossings.
Traffic Data
| Date | Total Ships Crossing Strait | Ships via Omani Route | Ships via Iranian Route |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-conflict average | 138 (JMIC) | – | – |
| 17 June (deal signed) | – | – | – |
| 24 June (peak) | 72 | – | – |
| 25 June | – | 28 (Kpler) | – |
| 1 July (week before latest) | 47 (Kpler) | – | – |
| 8 July (latest) | 23 (Kpler) | – | – |
Source: Kpler and JMIC data as reported by BBC.
Implications for Shippers and Operators
The dramatic drop in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz directly affects global supply chains for oil, LNG, and fertiliser—more than a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies flow through this chokepoint. Operators of tankers and cargo ships face a difficult choice: risk the US-recommended Omani route, which has been targeted, or follow Iran's northern route, which Iran claims is safe but US allies consider a violation of free passage.
Shippers should expect significantly longer transit times, possible diversions around the Arabian Peninsula (via the Cape of Good Hope or Bab el-Mandeb), and soaring war risk insurance premiums. All three attacked vessels were tankers, but cargo ships carrying containerised goods or dry bulk are also exposed. Freight forwarders and logistics managers must monitor JMIC advisories and consult with marine insurers before scheduling transits.
"The only safe route for the passage of commercial ships and oil tankers in the strait is the route determined by the Islamic Republic of Iran." – Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters
Watch List
- Diplomatic efforts to enforce the 17 June deal and establish a universally recognised safe passage corridor.
- Further strikes or mine-clearing operations by US or Iranian forces.
- Changes in war risk insurance premiums and availability for vessels transiting the strait.
- Potential rerouting of LNG and oil cargoes, affecting spot rates and supply to European and Asian markets.
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