Halloween candy appearing on U.S. grocery shelves in early August is a deliberate inventory strategy driven by tariff uncertainty and front-loaded import cycles, not a supply chain anomaly, according to Amrita Bhasin, CEO of inventory liquidation company Sotira, speaking on FreightWaves Today.
The 'Summerween' Strategy and Import Front-Loading
Bhasin said May was the peak month for imports in 2025, and she expects volumes to decline for the rest of the year. That view conflicts with Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka, who has projected a robust second half for imports. The early-season stocking trend — dubbed "summerween" by retailers — reflects a broader shift in inventory planning as brands rush to bring goods into the country while tariff conditions are favorable. "Everything is getting pushed out earlier across pretty much all consumable or consumer good categories," Bhasin said. Christmas decorations are also expected to hit shelves significantly earlier than in prior years, she added.
The Cost of Overstock and Returns
The candy and chocolate category illustrates the compounding pressures, Bhasin said. A small bag of candy at convenience stores reached upward of $20 in some ZIP codes last year, driven by spiking cocoa prices. Manufacturers responded by overbuying, leaving excess stock that now needs to move. At the same time, GLP-1 drug adoption, consumer concern over food dyes — with some manufacturers pledging to phase out certain dyes by end of 2026 — and declining appetite for high-sugar products are suppressing demand in the category.
"I think last year we saw a big return season. Returns the last few seasons have been high. Retailers are coming up with new policies," Bhasin said.
Some e-commerce platforms now track return thresholds and may ban repeat offenders regardless of the dollar value involved, she noted. The returns challenge is costly across the supply chain: warehouses pay $1 to $2 just to scan a single returned unit back into inventory — a significant burden when the item's MSRP may be only $8. Data shows 45% to 50% of e-commerce returns go directly to landfill without ever returning to a warehouse shelf, Bhasin said.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Convenience-store candy bag price (some ZIP codes, 2025) | Upward of $20 |
| Warehouse cost to scan one returned unit | $1–$2 |
| Typical MSRP of a returned item | $8 |
| E-commerce returns sent directly to landfill | 45%–50% |
| Peak import month (2025) | May |
Where Overstock Is Concentrated
Overstock is concentrated in packaged food and beverage, Bhasin said, including:
- Cereals
- Protein and nutrition bars
- Chocolate-heavy CPG items
These categories have accumulated excess inventory across the past 18 months. The firm also sees growing excess in ultra-luxury goods — handbags and prestige perfumes — as consumers question whether elevated price points justify quality. By contrast, categories performing well include fiber-enriched beverages, high-protein products, and clean beauty items, where consumers have shown a willingness to pay a premium.
Logistics Response and Market Signals
Sotira is working with retail partners to route excess and returned goods to nonprofits via backhaul on existing truck lanes, generating tax deductions for brands and producing impact reports that companies use in investor disclosures. Bhasin called out GLP-1 adoption as a structural shift affecting not just food but broader consumer behavior, including reduced impulse buying. She said the behavioral changes tied to these drugs are "underappreciated" and could reshape how brands market and procure products well beyond the grocery aisle.
With overstock volumes already elevated and consumer spending pulling back in recent months, Bhasin argued that the inventory already sitting in U.S. distribution centers may be sufficient to supply demand.
What This Means for Your Procurement Team
For procurement leaders, the figures Bhasin cited — $20 convenience-store candy bags, $1–$2 scanning costs per returned unit, and 45–50% landfill rates — are a case for building return-logistics costs into margin models and scrutinizing import timing. The May 2025 import peak, followed by an expected decline in volumes for the rest of the year, indicates that front-loaded ordering during a tariff window can leave distributors holding excess stock when demand softens. The concentration of overstock in cereals, bars, and chocolate-heavy CPG — alongside strength in fiber-enriched and high-protein products — signals category-level shifts worth reflecting in sourcing plans. And Sotira's backhaul-to-nonprofit routing model offers a template for clearing excess inventory while generating investor-facing impact reports.
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