As the United States heads into an especially contentious midterm election season, prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi have already run into trouble with the political commentators they pay to promote their platforms. Both companies have asked influencers to take down "paid partnership" tags on social media posts questioning the results of the Los Angeles mayoral election, according to a report from WIRED.
The Controversial Posts
As conservative former reality television star Spencer Pratt fell to third place behind incumbent Karen Bass and city counselor Nithya Raman, several popular right-wing creators published posts casting doubt on the race. In one post, a MAGA influencer known as Gunther Eagleman, who has over 1.7 million followers, suggested that Pratt's opponents were "stealing" the election. Kalshi asked the creators to remove the posts last Friday, as Semafor first reported.
Meanwhile, Polymarket asked two creators to remove paid-partnership tags from posts critical of the election results. One post from right-wing influencer Benny Johnson suggested the reason Raman's odds had improved on Polymarket was because "the public has so little faith in California's elections that they just assume Democrats are going to dramatically rig it." Johnson's post was tagged as paid content from June 4 until June 8, when the partnership tag was removed. Johnson did not respond to requests for comment and has not posted any new Polymarket affiliate content since the takedown.
Platform Policies and Enforcement
According to WIRED, Kalshi does not publicly disclose its contracts with paid partners, but the company's rules specifically ban affiliates from questioning the integrity or accuracy of official election results and legal rulings made in connection with elections. "These are internal policies to guide our affiliates and partners, and they include standards around the promotion of and marketing of Kalshi markets on elections," spokesperson Dani Lever told WIRED.
| Platform | Policy on Election Denial | Enforcement Action | Spokesperson Quote |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Bans affiliates from questioning integrity or accuracy of official election results and legal rulings | Asked creators to remove posts last Friday | "These are internal policies ... they include standards around the promotion of and marketing of Kalshi markets on elections." – Dani Lever |
| Polymarket | Prohibits affiliates from providing misleading or false information | Asked two creators to remove paid-partnership tags; pursuing additional accounts | "Our existing marketing guidelines explicitly prohibit affiliates from providing misleading or false information." – Olivia Chalos |
Polymarket declined to share the language it uses in contracts with affiliates, although the company confirmed that its guidelines prohibit false and misleading statements. Olivia Chalos, Polymarket’s deputy chief legal officer, told WIRED: "Our existing marketing guidelines explicitly prohibit affiliates from providing misleading or false information, and we will continue to monitor and ensure compliance with our paid contributors."
A Pattern of Noncompliance
As the newsletter Popular Information first reported earlier today, other posts labeled as paid partnerships with Polymarket and Kalshi that promote election-denial narratives remain online, demonstrating how enforcing their guidelines has become a game of whack-a-mole for prediction-market firms. Polymarket is pursuing additional accounts that have violated its policies, it told WIRED.
Last week, Politico reported that Polymarket chief marketing officer Matthew Modabber pays content creators directly using PayPal, an unorthodox arrangement. It is unclear whether Modabber paid Johnson or right-wing commentator Kangmin Lee, whose post was also removed, for these specific partnerships. Polymarket declined to comment on the form of payment.
Regulatory Scrutiny and Broader Implications
Kalshi and Polymarket offer a wide range of politics- and elections-themed markets, and prediction-market odds are increasingly incorporated into media coverage of elections. CNN, for example, entered into a formal partnership with Kalshi late last year. But both platforms are under intense scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators. Many state officials believe that these startups should be regulated like gambling platforms rather than commodities exchanges, and dozens of ongoing lawsuits are attempting to force them to abide by state gambling laws. There’s also bipartisan concern over how these markets can incentivize and facilitate insider trading and market manipulation.
This latest incident raises yet another alarm: These companies have entangled themselves with influencers embracing election denialism. The odds that this is a one-off, and this army of influencers will comply with the new rules, remain uncertain.
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