Improved monsoon momentum in July is expected to support the recovery of kharif sowing in India, while higher water availability and reservoir levels will likely mitigate the impact of uneven rainfall distribution across regions, according to a report by ICICI Bank.
Monsoon Rainfall Trends
As of 6 July 2026, India's cumulative rainfall stood at 170.7 mm, 20% below the long period average (LPA), the report noted. While rainfall distribution remains uneven, activity has improved in recent weeks. "If sustained, this trend is expected to gradually narrow the seasonal shortfall," the report stated.
Regional Disparities
The following table summarizes regional rainfall deviations from LPA:
| Region | Deviation from LPA |
|---|---|
| East and Northeast India | -41% (deficit) |
| Northwest India | -19% |
| South India | +15% (excess) |
| Central India | -5% |
Eastern states including Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and North Indian states Haryana and Punjab have received less rainfall, along with Gujarat and Karnataka. In contrast, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan have witnessed normal rainfall. Tamil Nadu recorded excess rainfall. At the sub-division level, 17 of 36 sub-divisions recorded deficient rainfall, 16 received normal rainfall, and three experienced excess precipitation, as per the report.
Kharif Sowing Update
India's kharif sowing is still below last year's level. As of 5 July 2026, kharif sowing stood at 35.1 million hectares, down 20.8% YoY from 44.3 million hectares in the corresponding period last year, mainly due to deficient rainfall in major kharif-producing states.
Among key crops:
- Rice, pulses, and coarse cereals witnessed the sharpest decline in acreage.
- Sugarcane, jute, and Mesta maintained relatively better sowing coverage.
Reservoir Levels and Outlook
The report notes that while reservoir levels remain below optimal due to the delayed monsoon, improving basin-level water availability could help mitigate near-term risks from below-normal rainfall. Despite intensifying El Nino conditions, rainfall has seen an improvement in India. Highlighting that the Indian Ocean Dipole is in neutral territory, the report said, "Current rainfall activity is positive for sowing."
The improved monsoon momentum is expected to support kharif sowing recovery in the coming weeks, narrowing the seasonal shortfall if sustained. For commodity traders and agribusiness executives, the acreage data suggests potential downward pressure on rice and pulse production, while reservoir improvements offer some buffer against further deficits.
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