The Indian monsoon is staging an emphatic comeback in late July, upending earlier forecasts of a fade-out, as a relentless succession of Bay of Bengal low-pressure systems drives widespread rainfall across the country. According to a report in The Hindu Business Line, the clearest sign of revival came when a low-pressure area over the north-west Bay of Bengal intensified into a deep depression—just one rung below a tropical cyclone—a rarity during the monsoon season. This strengthening defies expectations that a building El Niño would sap the monsoon's vigour through July.
Rainfall Deficit Improvement
The renewed burst of monsoon activity has sharply improved the national rainfall picture. Cumulative rainfall across India until Sunday stood at a deficit of 15 per cent, with Central India almost back to normal at minus 3 per cent and North-West India at minus 8 per cent. East and North-East India, after weeks of concern, improved to a deficit of 29 per cent, matching the South Peninsula.
| Region | Cumulative Rainfall Deficit |
|---|---|
| All India | -15% |
| Central India | -3% |
| North-West India | -8% |
| East & North-East India | -29% |
| South Peninsula | -29% |
Under India Meteorological Department (IMD) norms, rainfall between 19 per cent above normal and 19 per cent below normal is classified as "normal."
Deep Depression and Weather Systems
The deep depression formed over the north-west Bay of Bengal and intensified dramatically within two to three days. On Monday morning, it lay about 30 km south of Sagar Island; 70 km east-southeast of Digha; 90 km south of Diamond Harbour; 110 km south-southwest of Canning; and 120 km east-southeast of Balasore. The IMD said the system would move north-northwest and cross the West Bengal-North Odisha coast between Balasore and Canning by Monday afternoon before moving inland, expected to keep feeding widespread rainfall across large parts of the country.
Such an intense monsoon depression is unusual because strong vertical wind shear normally prevents monsoon systems from growing beyond ordinary depressions. The monsoon trough stretched from Bikaner through Gwalior, Varanasi, and Jamshedpur to the centre of the deep depression, with an upper-air cyclonic circulation persisting over south-west Rajasthan.
Flooding and Agricultural Damage in Assam
The resurgent monsoon also triggered floods and related havoc in Assam. According to the Assam State Disaster Management Authority, the floods have caused severe devastation, resulting in 68 reported casualties, over 6.5 lakh affected people, and widespread property and agricultural damage across multiple districts. This highlights the dual nature of the monsoon: while beneficial for overall crop prospects, excessive rainfall can cause localised crop losses.
Outlook for Commodity Markets
The monsoon's revival is a critical supply-side factor for Indian agricultural commodities. Improved rainfall across central and north-west regions is likely to support the sowing and growth of key kharif crops such as rice, cotton, pulses, and oilseeds. However, flooding and excess rain in parts of Odisha, West Bengal, and Assam may have damaged standing crops. Traders and analysts should monitor the IMD's weekly rainfall updates and the trajectory of the monsoon trough, as further heavy rainfall is expected over Central, West, East, and North-East India in the coming days, while much of the South Peninsula may remain outside the main wet zone. The ability of the monsoon to sustain its vigour into August will be pivotal for India's agricultural output and related commodity prices.
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