India’s monsoon season is running 13 per cent below its long-period average after July delivered a 1 per cent surplus, yet the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that August rainfall could turn “below normal” — a development that Director-General M Mohapatra said might upset farmers’ hopes if the forecast materialises. The June-July rainfall tally reached 389.8 mm against a normal 445.8 mm, according to IMD data reported by BusinessLine.
Regional rainfall: deficit concentrated in south and east
The June-July shortfall is unevenly distributed across India’s four meteorological subdivisions, with the south peninsula and east/north-east recording the largest deficits while central India ran a surplus. According to IMD data published by BusinessLine:
| Meteorological subdivision | States covered | June-July rainfall | Normal | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South peninsula | Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh | 280.1 mm | 365.5 mm | -23% |
| Central | Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha | 511.4 mm | 491.6 mm | +4% |
| North-west | Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh | 254.4 mm | 287.8 mm | -12% |
| East & north-east | West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam and other north-eastern states | 529.3 mm | 752.5 mm | -30% |
The south peninsula reported deficient rainfall in July for the first time in eight years, Mohapatra said. Countrywide, 16 states accounting for 36 per cent of India's geographical area — including five north-eastern states that normally receive high rainfall — have posted deficient precipitation, according to BusinessLine.
IMD August outlook: below-normal rain and a strengthening El Nino
Mohapatra, briefing media on the August outlook, said:
“The country as a whole may receive ‘below normal’ rainfall in both August and August-September together as well.”
He said a moderate El Nino may continue in August and could move toward a strong El Nino in September, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) may turn positive in September. Experts quoted by BusinessLine said a positive IOD may negate the adverse impact of the El Nino on the monsoon.
July anomaly: record low-pressure systems
July itself was wetter than normal. India received 283.3 mm of rain in July against a long-period average of 280.5 mm, Mohapatra said. He noted this was an exceptional year because July rainfall had been declining in recent years, and attributed record 24 low pressure systems — the most since 2017 — developing in the month as a key factor driving the higher rains. Even with the surplus, mean temperature in July 2026 was the third highest since 1901, he added.
India entered the season with a 35 per cent June deficit before the July surplus trimmed the cumulative shortfall to 13 per cent. The persistence of dry weather across the south and north-east, combined with IMD’s below-normal August forecast, leaves the seasonal outcome dependent on how the El Nino and IOD evolve over the coming weeks, according to BusinessLine.
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