Crisil Intelligence expects Brent crude prices to average $90-95 per barrel in the current fiscal year, a ~32% increase from fiscal 2026, according to a report published on June 18, 2026. The agency warned that this will likely push India's current account deficit (CAD) to 2.2% of GDP from 0.6% in the previous fiscal.
Trade Deficit and Export Trends
India's merchandise trade deficit widened to $28.2 billion in May 2026 from $22.6 billion a year ago, Crisil reported. Exports showed a "broad-based 18% acceleration on-year" to $45.2 billion in May, compared with 13.8% growth to $43.6 billion in April. Key export segments:
- Petroleum exports: surged 54.9% (vs 34.6% in April)
- Core exports: grew 12.3% to $34.2 billion (vs 10.4% to $31.6 billion)
Crisil attributed the petroleum export jump to "a statistical low-base effect" and the 66.2% on-year increase in Brent crude prices in May. On a sequential basis, India's oil exports dropped to $8.4 billion in May from $9.6 billion in April, driven by lower crude oil prices month-on-month after the extraordinary surge in the prior two months due to the conflict in West Asia.
Price and Supply Dynamics
Brent crude averaged $107.1 per barrel in May, down 8.7% from April, Crisil noted. Oil remains the largest component of India's goods trade deficit, accounting for 36% in fiscal 2026. The agency stated: "Crisil Intelligence expects Brent crude price to average $90-95 per barrel this fiscal, ~32% higher than in fiscal 2026."
The following table summarizes key trade and price data from the Crisil report:
| Metric | May 2026 | Year ago (May 2025) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Merchandise trade deficit | $28.2 bn | $22.6 bn | +24.8% |
| Total exports | $45.2 bn | $38.3 bn (estimated) | +18.0% |
| Petroleum exports | $8.4 bn | $5.4 bn (estimated) | +54.9% |
| Core exports | $34.2 bn | $30.4 bn (estimated) | +12.3% |
| Brent crude average price | $107.1/bbl | $64.4/bbl (estimated) | +66.2% |
"Despite the expected resolution of geopolitical uncertainties in West Asia, energy prices are expected to remain elevated on-year as it will take several months for supplies to normalise fully. Goods exports, too, will have to navigate lingering global trade disruptions," Crisil said.
Outlook and Risks
For the current fiscal, Crisil projects the CAD to rise to 2.2% of GDP from 0.6% in fiscal 2026, driven primarily by higher oil prices. The agency emphasized that elevated energy prices will persist even after geopolitical tensions ease, as supply normalisation will take time. Lingering global trade disruptions also pose risks to goods exports.
Sources:
