The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Thursday that global energy security is in jeopardy if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are not restored soon, according to IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
"Oil security is still a critical issue," Birol told a Council on Foreign Relations event. "We should be worried, and I am worried, if the situation does not improve in the next few weeks."
Geopolitical Context and Supply Disruption
The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman, normally carries about one-fifth of the world's energy shipments, according to Birol. It has been mostly blocked since the conflict began on February 28 with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Birol described the Iran war as the worst energy disruption in history.
Factors Moderating Price Rise
Despite sharp energy price increases, Birol said several factors have moderated the rise. He attributed this to China's stockpile, which totaled more than 1 billion barrels of oil before the war, China's oil conservation through increased use of electric vehicles and public transport, and an IEA-coordinated release of up to 400 million barrels of oil. Additionally, increased production by the United States—the world's top oil and gas producer—has helped. Birol noted, "The U.S. increased 1 million, 2 million but it cannot increase 10 million" barrels per day of crude oil output.
Oil prices fell about $20 a barrel after the coordinated IEA release in March, and the action signaled to markets that the organization representing more than 30 countries could tap reserves again if things get worse.
| Factor | Detail |
|---|---|
| China's strategic stockpile | Over 1 billion barrels before the war |
| China's conservation | Increased EV and public transport use |
| IEA coordinated release | Up to 400 million barrels released |
| U.S. production increase | 1-2 million bpd (but cannot increase by 10 million bpd) |
Asymmetric Impact on Economies
The oil and gas supply crisis has hurt economies around the world, but in an asymmetric way, Birol said. "It is mainly Asia, because Asia was getting 80 to 90% of this energy from the Strait of Hormuz." Japan and South Korea have suffered, but developing countries including Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India have been hit hardest, he said.
Birol highlighted potential health risks for people in developing countries, especially women, who have turned to alternative cooking fuels including dung and wood with more hazardous emissions as petroleum products have become unaffordable.
Outlook and Remaining Reserves
Birol warned that the fixes "can't last forever." Even though the IEA release was huge, he noted, "It was only 20% of the stocks we have, 80% is still in the pocket." The release demonstrated that the IEA could intervene again if the situation deteriorates further.
Published on July 17, 2026.
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