Topic
chokepoint
Commodities Strait of Hormuz Closure: Fitch Says High Oil Prices a Temporary Shock as Supply to Return to Surplus
Fitch Ratings expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen by end of July, bringing oil prices back to an average of $87 per barrel in 2026. The agency says the recent surge is a temporary logistical bottleneck, not a permanent supply loss, and markets will return to surplus from September.
Logistics Strait of Hormuz Closure Hits 100 Days as Dark Tanker Trade Masks True Oil Flow
The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively closed for more than 100 days, causing a 95% reduction in crude shipments from Arabian Gulf ports and a 99% drop in LNG carriers, according to WTO data. The 'dark trade' of vessels running without AIS transponders makes actual oil flows difficult to quantify, but analysts estimate 100 million barrels may have moved through since May 1. Despite the disruption, Brent crude sits at $87.55 per barrel due to buffers from China, the US, Brazil, and Canada. Recovery may take years, with IEA warning of up to two years for energy facility repairs.