India's coal demand is projected to rise to around 1.6 billion tonnes by 2030, prompting a push for more efficient, transparent and market-driven coal trading mechanisms as the country transitions from scarcity to surplus, according to Coal Secretary Vikram Dev Dutt. Speaking on August 14 at the Global Commodity Conclave 2026 in Mumbai, Dutt said the shift underscores the need for modern trading infrastructure to support India's growing energy requirements.
From scarcity to surplus
Dutt said domestic coal production crossed 1 billion tonnes for the first time in 2024-25 and remained above that level for a second consecutive year in 2025-26. The achievement reflects India's growing self-reliance in energy and its ability to ensure an uninterrupted fuel supply, he noted.
| Year | Production / demand milestone |
|---|---|
| 2024-25 | Domestic production crossed 1 billion tonnes for the first time |
| 2025-26 | Production stayed above 1 billion tonnes for a second straight year |
| 2030 (projected) | Coal demand estimated at around 1.6 billion tonnes |
A many-to-many coal exchange
Against this backdrop, the government is seeking to move beyond the existing one-to-many sales model towards a many-to-many trading platform through the proposed coal exchange. The exchange will allow buyers and sellers to bid simultaneously, enabling competitive price discovery and bringing multiple coal sales channels into a standardised trading framework, Dutt explained.
Key features of the proposed exchange, according to the secretary:
- Commercial and captive coal miners get access to a wider market.
- Consumers can source coal from multiple domestic producers, reducing dependence on a single supplier.
- The exchange will function as a central counterparty for clearing and settlement, improving risk management for both buyers and sellers.
- The platform could make it easier for buyers to meet unplanned or short-term coal requirements.
Derivatives market roadmap
The coal exchange could eventually support the development of a derivatives market, allowing producers and consumers to manage price risks. "This will also lay the foundation for the development of a coal derivatives market in India at the right point of time," Dutt said, adding that coal could become an active part of the convergence between physical and financial commodity markets.
Dutt said at the conclave:
Coal demand is projected to rise further to an estimated 1.6 billion tonnes by 2030, and under this situation, where the country has moved from a scarcity scenario to a surplus scenario, a shift that underscores the need for more efficient, transparent and market-driven mechanisms for coal trade.
Implementation and reform agenda
The government will engage with exchanges, regulators, market infrastructure institutions, financial intermediaries and industry stakeholders as the coal exchange framework is operationalised in the coming months, Dutt stated. The broader reform agenda is aimed at greater transparency, faster project execution, wider private participation and a more efficient, self-reliant coal ecosystem.
For commodity traders and procurement teams, the planned exchange is designed to provide new mechanisms for price discovery and risk management, with the eventual derivatives market giving producers and consumers tools to manage price risks as India's coal demand is projected to climb to 1.6 billion tonnes by 2030, according to Dutt.
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