According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), Russia accounted for over 50% of India's crude oil imports in July, making any abrupt shift away from Moscow's crude unlikely in the wake of the fresh Trump tariff threat emerging from the US. "Russia supplied an estimated 52% of India's crude-oil imports in July 2026, up from 48.6% in June. The estimate indicates that more than half of India's imported crude now comes from Russia, sharply limiting New Delhi's ability to reduce these purchases at short notice," said GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava.
Russian share climbs to 52% in July
GTRI's analysis showed that in June India imported crude oil worth $14.8 billion from all sources, of which $7.2 billion came from Russia, translating into a Russian share of 48.6%. For July, the government released data showing India's overall imports from Russia at $8.9 billion but did not disclose how much of that consisted of crude oil. Since crude accounted for 82% of India's imports from Russia in June, GTRI applied the same proportion to July's figures, estimating Russian crude imports at around $7.3 billion.
| Indicator | June 2026 | July 2026 (GTRI estimate) |
|---|---|---|
| India's total crude imports (all sources) | $14.8 billion | Data not disclosed |
| Value of Russian crude imports | $7.2 billion | ~$7.3 billion |
| Russian share of India's crude imports | 48.6% | 52% |
A structural shift from Gulf suppliers to Russia
According to GTRI, India's crude sourcing pattern has undergone a major transformation over the past few years. Russia's share in India's crude oil imports climbed from around 15% in 2022 to 30.3% in FY2025-26, and has moved higher in recent months amid the US-Iran war. The combined contribution of Gulf suppliers has declined sharply, dropping from more than 55% in 2022 to below 30% by June 2026. GTRI noted that the conflict involving Iran and the resulting disruptions to global supply chains further accelerated this shift, increasing the importance of Russian crude in meeting India's energy needs.
| Period | Russia's share | Gulf suppliers' share |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | ~15% | >55% |
| FY2025-26 | 30.3% | Not stated |
| June 2026 | 48.6% | <30% |
| July 2026 | 52% (est.) | Not stated |
What the proposed US sanctions bill could mean
Srivastava warned that if the proposed US legislation on Russian sanctions is enacted, India could be exposed to additional tariffs of up to 100% should it continue importing Russian energy. "The measure could force India to choose between reducing its Russian oil purchases and protecting its exports to the US," he said. However, he noted India has limited room to make an abrupt shift.
Replacing a supplier that now accounts for more than half of imported crude would be difficult, costly and potentially disruptive. Alternative suppliers may not be able to provide comparable volumes immediately or on equally favourable commercial terms.
Costs of a sharp cut in Russian crude
According to GTRI, a sharp cut in Russian crude imports could raise India's oil import bill, disrupt refinery operations, widen the trade deficit and add to inflationary pressures. It could also increase the country's dependence on an already volatile West Asian region.
GTRI's advice: keep buying Russian crude
Srivastava said discounted Russian crude has lowered India's import costs, diversified its supplies and strengthened energy security. "India should continue purchasing Russian oil as long as it remains commercially attractive and complies with applicable rules," he said. He added: "American tariff threats should not determine India's energy policy. Differences with Washington should be addressed through firm negotiations, not unilateral concessions that raise India's energy costs and weaken its strategic autonomy."
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