More than 43% of the world's oil now comes from countries caught in wars, attacks and export curbs, according to Reuters calculations based on IEA data — a concentration of supply risk that has made the current crisis the largest on record. Countries hit by the disruptions produced about 45 million barrels of oil a day in 2025, eclipsing previous energy crises as this year's shocks spread beyond a single flashpoint.
Key finding: More than 43% of the world's oil now comes from countries caught in wars, attacks and export curbs, according to Reuters calculations based on IEA data.
A supply crisis beyond a single flashpoint
The figure, based on 2025 production, underlines how this year's disruptions have grown beyond a single flashpoint and eclipsed previous energy crises, Business Today reported. Six months after US and Israeli attacks on Iran triggered what has become the largest oil supply crisis on record, there is still no clear end in sight. The Russia-Ukraine war has meanwhile disrupted production and refining, with cuts also affecting nearby Kazakhstan this year. Libya's ongoing conflict and US restrictions on Venezuelan oil exports at the start of the year have added to the pressure on global supplies.
| Disruption hotspot | Status cited in the report |
|---|---|
| Iran | US and Israeli attacks; largest oil supply crisis on record |
| Russia–Ukraine | War disrupting production and refining |
| Kazakhstan | Output cuts this year |
| Libya | Ongoing conflict |
| Venezuela | US restrictions on exports at the start of 2025 |
| Gulf shipping routes | Estimated 5–7 million bpd disruption |
Gulf disruption puts millions of barrels at risk
The disruptions have not all taken place simultaneously, according to the report. At present, the Gulf oil disruption is estimated at around 5 million to 7 million barrels per day, according to analysts. Saudi Arabia has been re-routing oil to the Red Sea, while Gulf exporters have been secretly moving oil out through the Strait of Hormuz. But the risk to overall flows remains elevated, with attacks in the Red Sea and near Egypt's Suez Canal in July showing how vulnerable key routes remain.
The disruptions have also made the world more dependent on US oil supplies, although severe weather has occasionally hit those supplies as well, Business Today reported.
Wars squeeze refining capacity too
The impact has gone beyond crude oil. Conflicts in the Gulf and Ukraine have cut global refining capacity by about a tenth, according to the report. Ukraine has targeted large parts of Russia's refining network, with attacks reaching plants as far away as Omsk, around 2,700 km (1,680 miles) from Ukrainian-held territory.
Russia is now facing fuel shortages and has banned gasoline and diesel exports, putting further pressure on global fuel markets.
Fuel prices, inflation and the IEA response
Higher fuel prices have emerged as a key driver of inflation, contributing to higher borrowing costs and helping push US debt to a record $40 trillion, according to Business Today. US diesel prices have also climbed to record levels even as refiners operate at peak capacity.
Key pressure points identified in the report:
- Higher fuel prices driving inflation and borrowing costs
- US diesel prices at record levels despite peak refinery utilisation
- IEA emergency stockpile releases now largely complete
- Global inventories continuing to decline
The IEA has responded by releasing record volumes from emergency stockpiles to cushion the supply shock. Those releases are now largely complete, while global inventories continue to decline.
What it means for commodity markets
For crude traders and fuel procurement teams, the data points to a market with a thinning safety buffer: IEA emergency stockpile releases are largely complete, global inventories continue to decline, and Russia's gasoline and diesel export ban has removed a major source of global fuel supply. The estimated 5–7 million barrels per day Gulf disruption is only one layer of a multi-front supply shock spanning Iran, Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, Libya and Venezuela. With US supplies serving as the growing marginal source and roughly a tenth of global refining capacity knocked offline, the balance of risk in physical crude and refined product markets remains firmly on the supply side.
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