Confusion over the status of the Strait of Hormuz deepened over the weekend as the United States and Iran issued contradictory statements on whether the crucial energy chokepoint is open to commercial shipping, according to Splash247. The uncertainty is creating a growing disconnect between political declarations and operational reality, with vessel movements remaining a fraction of normal levels despite claims from Washington that maritime traffic is flowing.
Conflicting Statements from Washington and Tehran
US Central Command said 55 merchant ships transited the strait on Saturday, carrying more than 17 million barrels of oil and other cargoes, Splash247 reported. Iran, meanwhile, maintained that the waterway had been closed again by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in response to what Tehran described as violations of the interim peace agreement by the United States and Israel.
For shipowners, the practical picture remains far murkier. Before hostilities erupted on February 28, between 130 and 160 vessels passed through Hormuz daily. Following Iran's initial closure declaration, traffic reportedly fell to around six ships a day. After last week's US-Iran memorandum of understanding and 60-day ceasefire, transits recovered modestly, reaching around 25 vessels on Thursday.
Traffic Data Shows Sharp Decline
However, vessel-tracking data from Kpler showed only five ships passed through the strait on Sunday, down sharply from 26 a day earlier, according to Splash247. The table below summarises the reported transit numbers:
| Period | Daily Vessel Transits | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Before Feb 28 (normal) | 130–160 | Splash247 |
| After initial Iran closure | ~6 | Splash247 |
| After 60-day ceasefire (Thursday) | ~25 | Splash247 |
| Saturday (US claim) | 55 | US Central Command via Splash247 |
| Sunday (Kpler tracking) | 5 | Kpler via Splash247 |
Adding to the uncertainty, Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority has issued guidance requiring vessels to obtain passage permits before transiting. A memo from the authority stated that "no vessel is permitted to pass through the Strait of Hormuz without a valid passage permit", Splash247 reported.
Reports circulating among shipowners have also referred to warning shots being fired and continuing restrictions on vessel movements.
Mine Threat and Insurance Response
The mine threat remains a major concern, with any mine clearing operation expected to take up to two months to complete, according to the source.
In related news, on Friday Lloyd's welcomed the launch of a new marine war risk insurance consortium led by Chubb that will provide up to $400 million in cover for vessels and cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, Splash247 reported.
Implications for Trade and Shipping
The conflicting signals create significant operational risk for importers, exporters, and trade policy professionals. While US authorities assert the strait is open, the sharp drop in vessel numbers recorded by independent trackers and Iran's permit requirement suggest that insurers and shipowners are pricing in a high likelihood of disruption. The new war risk pool may offer some relief, but the ongoing mine threat and unclear enforcement of transit rules mean that normal traffic levels of over 130 ships per day remain distant. Trade policy analysts should monitor both military statements and commercial tracking data closely, as the gap between political messaging and on-water reality could widen.
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