Merchant shipping remains exposed across the Middle East's two principal maritime chokepoints, with fresh threats and explosions reported in the Strait of Hormuz even as Washington claims another round of peace negotiations with Iran is getting underway, according to Splash247.
The latest incidents follow a reported attack on the Bermuda-flagged LNG carrier GasLog Shanghai off Oman overnight into Saturday. Splash247 reported that missiles or other projectiles reportedly damaged its engine-room area, leaving the ship inoperable, although GasLog has not confirmed the incident. No casualties or pollution have been independently verified.
Fresh incidents in the Strait of Hormuz
Vanguard Tech reported on Monday that the Liberia-flagged tanker Egypt Prosperity received repeated threats over VHF while sailing eastbound through Hormuz, around 20 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman, at 20:37 UTC on Sunday. According to Splash247, the callers claimed affiliation with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy and warned that the tanker would be attacked. The master subsequently heard a loud explosion at a considerable distance off the starboard beam, altered course and headed towards Dubai's outer port limits. The ship and crew were reported safe.
- A second Liberia-flagged tanker, On Pride, reported warning shots from the north and an explosion about 1.5 nautical miles from its port quarter while inbound through Omani territorial waters. The master believed the unidentified projectile had been aimed at another vessel but could not confirm this.
- Splash247 noted that the reports show Hormuz remains perilous despite renewed diplomacy, with traffic severely reduced and owners facing uncertain war-risk cover.
Diplomacy and the reopening of Hormuz
US president Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran would begin on Monday afternoon, although he named no venue, participants or deadline, according to Splash247. Trump said he had called off a planned attack at the request of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE in the hope of securing the "Immediate, Complete and Total" reopening of Hormuz.
A proposal described by a regional official would see Iran reopen the strait and halt attacks in return for the US ending its naval blockade and permitting Iranian oil exports. Tehran disputes that any agreement has been reached. Separate talks between Iran and Oman were said to be in their final stages, but Tehran described these as discussions over a new transit route rather than restoration of the pre-war passage regime.
Bab al-Mandab: Houthis deny toll reports
At the other end of the region, the Houthis have issued a rare press release directly to Splash denying reports that ships are being charged to transit the Bab al-Mandab. The Houthi-run Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center said it had neither taken nor considered a decision to impose tolls and insisted passage remained free.
It also said its Safe Transit Service was voluntary and free for ships outside the group's declared ban, warning owners not to make payments or provide information to anyone claiming to collect fees on its behalf. Splash247 noted the statement does not amount to an assurance of unrestricted navigation, as the Houthis continue to define classes of vessels as prohibited and exposed to attack.
Gulf exporters accelerate alternative routes
The simultaneous disruption of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab is forcing Gulf exporters to accelerate alternative routes, according to tanker broker Gibson. Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman have emerged as the relative winners because they possess ports outside Hormuz, although none has sufficient bypass capacity to replace normal Gulf exports fully.
Saudi Arabia is considering expanding its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea by up to 2m barrels per day, with Kuwait discussing access for its crude. The bottleneck is increasingly at Yanbu, where port infrastructure must be improved before the pipeline's nominal 7m barrels per day capacity can be realised. Crude loadings there recently averaged 4.65m barrels per day capacity, far above the previous record of 1.7m barrels per day capacity.
| Yanbu pipeline and loadings | Value |
|---|---|
| East-West pipeline nominal capacity | 7m barrels per day |
| Recent average crude loadings at Yanbu | 4.65m barrels per day capacity |
| Previous record crude loadings | 1.7m barrels per day capacity |
| Proposed East-West pipeline expansion | up to 2m barrels per day |
Shippers and operators: immediate concerns
According to Splash247, traffic through Hormuz is severely reduced and owners face uncertain war-risk cover. For freight forwarders and tanker operators, the immediate operational concerns are crew safety, insurance availability, and the viability of diversion routes around the chokepoint.
The relative winners — Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Oman — have ports outside Hormuz, but their bypass capacity cannot replace normal Gulf exports fully. Shippers relying on Gulf loadings should monitor Yanbu's infrastructure constraints and the progress of the proposed East-West pipeline expansion, which Kuwait is discussing for its crude.
Watch list
- Outcome of US-Iran negotiations, which Trump said would begin on Monday afternoon without a named venue, participants or deadline, according to Splash247.
- The Iranian-Omani talks, described by Tehran as discussions over a new transit route rather than restoration of the pre-war passage regime.
- Whether Houthi force proclamations match the group's denial of tolls at Bab al-Mandab; the Houthis continue to define prohibited vessel classes.
- Confirmation of the GasLog Shanghai incident, which GasLog has not confirmed, and independent verification of casualties and pollution, which have not been verified.
- Whether Yanbu port infrastructure improvements unlock the East-West pipeline's nominal 7m barrels per day capacity.
Sources:
