The West Asian conflict has exposed the varying levels of dependence that South Indian plantation commodities have on the region’s markets, resulting in sharply contrasting export outcomes, according to the United Planters’ Association of Southern India (UPASI).
Tea exports decline 41% to conflict zone
Tea exports during January–April declined by 18.9 per cent overall, from 86.08 million kg to 69.81 million kg, according to the Tea Board. However, a closer examination reveals that exports to the conflict-affected region fell by as much as 41.0 per cent, significantly higher than the overall decline, said R. Sanjith, secretary general of UPASI. Among the affected markets, exports to Iraq registered the sharpest contraction (67 per cent), followed by UAE (21 per cent). The comparatively lower decline in total tea exports suggests that the Indian tea industry was able to partially offset losses in its traditional West Asian markets by diversifying into alternative destinations and strengthening exports to other established markets.
| Market | Export decline (Jan–Apr) |
|---|---|
| Overall tea exports | −18.9% |
| Conflict-affected region | −41.0% |
| Iraq | −67% |
| UAE | −21% |
Cardamom defies trend with 216% growth
Among the plantation commodities, cardamom exports exhibit the highest dependence on conflict-zone markets. However, export during January–March 2026 remained largely unaffected and, in fact, recorded an impressive growth of 216.22 per cent. Exports increased from 1,108 tonnes during January–March 2025 to 3,506 tonnes during the corresponding period in 2026. The bulk of this increase was driven by Saudi Arabia, whose imports of Indian cardamom rose by 201.39 per cent, from 398.8 tonnes to 1,202 tonnes. The resilience of cardamom exports can largely be attributed to supply-side constraints in competing origins, particularly Guatemala, the world’s largest producer and exporter of cardamom. Guatemala reportedly experienced a substantial crop decline of nearly 50 per cent owing to adverse climatic conditions and pest infestations. The resulting shortage in global supplies appears to have more than compensated for the logistical disruptions arising from the West Asian crisis, enabling Indian cardamom exports to expand significantly despite prevailing geopolitical uncertainties.
| Metric | Jan–Mar 2025 | Jan–Mar 2026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cardamom exports (tonnes) | 1,108 | 3,506 | +216.22% |
| Saudi Arabia imports (tonnes) | 398.8 | 1,202 | +201.39% |
Pepper and coffee exposure
Pepper also exhibited considerable exposure, with exports to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman accounting for around 44.46 per cent. Similarly, the UAE, Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia collectively accounted for about 43.91 per cent of India’s tea exports. Coffee was the notable exception. Exports to the region accounted for only 7.79 per cent of total coffee shipments, as the bulk of Indian coffee exports are destined for European markets and routed primarily through the Suez Canal or, alternatively, the Cape of Good Hope. Consequently, the sector remained relatively insulated from the direct trade disruptions experienced by other plantation commodities.
Diversification key to resilience
The experience underscores the growing importance of export diversification, supply-chain flexibility and global market dynamics in safeguarding India’s plantation sector against geopolitical shocks, said Sanjith. Published on June 16, 2026.
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