Persistent global port congestion is effectively removing about 1.7m teu of containership capacity from the global market — an amount approaching the size of Evergreen's entire fleet — according to new analysis from Sea-Intelligence reported by Splash247.
The Copenhagen-based consultancy's latest Global Liner Performance report shows little sign that liner schedule reliability is improving, according to the article, with June 2026 performance continuing to hover around 60% to 65%. Before the pandemic, carriers typically achieved schedule reliability of between 70% and 80%. The deterioration is not simply about more ships arriving late: the ships that are delayed are also being held up for considerably longer.
The capacity being lost to congestion
Sea-Intelligence data shows that in the years before the pandemic, a late vessel typically arrived three to four days behind schedule; the new normal appears to be around five to five-and-a-half days. Combining the proportion of delayed ships with the length of those delays allows the consultancy to calculate how much fleet capacity is effectively tied up and unavailable to shippers. In June, delays absorbed approximately 5% of the global container fleet. During the comparatively stable 2011–2019 period, around 2.2% of capacity was routinely absorbed by delays, meaning today's market is running 2.8 percentage points above the historic baseline.
| Metric | Pre-pandemic (2011–2019) | June 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Schedule reliability | 70%–80% | 60%–65% |
| Average delay for late vessel | 3–4 days | 5–5.5 days |
| Capacity absorbed by delays | ~2.2% of global fleet | ~5% of global fleet |
| Effective capacity removed | — | ~1.7m teu |
More than an Evergreen-sized chunk
In absolute terms, the current 5% absorption equates to approximately 1.7m teu of containership capacity temporarily removed from effective supply, according to the Splash247 report. Even stripping out the historic 2.2% level of normal disruption leaves around 1m teu of additional capacity being swallowed up by delays — roughly equivalent to the fleet of HMM. The numbers help explain why container shipping capacity can remain surprisingly tight despite the enormous volume of new tonnage delivered by Asian shipyards in recent years. Carriers may have considerably more ships on the water, but congestion, disrupted routings and deteriorating schedule performance mean a sizeable chunk of that theoretical capacity is not actually available at any given moment.
Maersk: congestion now outweighs supply growth
Maersk last week raised its full-year guidance again, citing widespread port congestion. CEO Vincent Clerc said:
"Strong, broad-based demand from the Far East since 2024 has resulted in significantly more unbalanced trade flows, with volume levels that are challenging landside infrastructure capacity. From ports to inland transportation, we are seeing increased congestion and disruption across multiple geographies."
According to the article, Maersk said congestion is now outweighing supply growth as a key driver of freight rates.
What forwarders and operators should watch
- Schedule reliability is stuck at 60–65% — operators should plan for late arrivals averaging five to five-and-a-half days rather than the pre-pandemic three to four days.
- The effective loss of ~1.7m teu means capacity that appears available in fleet statistics may not be accessible; book space early and build buffer time.
- With Maersk citing congestion across multiple geographies and from ports to inland transportation, shippers should expect disruption across inland haulage as well as at terminals.
- Because Maersk expects congestion to outweigh supply growth as a rate driver, contract and spot rate planning should factor in sustained tightness.
Watch list
- Whether June's 60–65% schedule reliability band improves in subsequent Global Liner Performance updates.
- How much of the wave of new tonnage delivered by Asian shipyards remains effectively unavailable due to congestion and disrupted routings.
- Maersk's raised full-year guidance and its statement that congestion is outweighing supply growth as a key rate driver.
- The evolution of unbalanced trade flows from the Far East that Maersk said are challenging landside infrastructure capacity.
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