U.S. truckload procurement is sending mixed signals: van contract rates climbed 19.3% year over year while NTI spot rates dipped roughly 5% month over month, according to FreightWaves SONAR data. The divergence — not a market softening — is pricing forward risk into committed capacity, and shippers chasing today's lower spot quotes may miss the bigger trend.
Contract Rates Keep Climbing as Spot Slips
Van contract rates are up 19.3% year over year while NTI spot rates have fallen about 5% month over month, FreightWaves reported in its Aug. 12 SONAR Update. Craig Fuller, presenting the update, warned procurement teams not to mistake the spot decline for a softening market. The spot pullback reflects "some seasonal softening," Fuller said, but more significantly it signals that carriers and brokers are pricing forward risk into committed rates as new mini-bids and contract renewals roll in.
“Don’t get fooled by the short-term spot bit of decline,” Fuller said. “The contract rates rising is a huge part of that.”
He added that procurement teams need to keep benchmarking against contract rates and prepare for continued double-digit increases that major carriers have flagged in recent earnings calls.
Intermodal Gains Ground as Truckload Tenders Dip
Modal conversion is emerging as the market's leading indicator, Fuller said. Truckload tender volumes are down about 2% overall, yet intermodal container volumes are up 2% in the same window — a simultaneous shift that points to deliberate shipper strategy rather than demand destruction. The 32% cost spread between intermodal and truckload rates is a primary driver, according to Zach Strickland.
“The fact that you see a 32% spread on the cost is — you can't ignore it,” Strickland said.
| Metric | Level / Change | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Van contract rates | +19.3% year over year | SONAR via FreightWaves |
| NTI spot rates | -5% month over month | SONAR via FreightWaves |
| Truckload tender volumes | -2% | SONAR via FreightWaves |
| Intermodal container volumes | +2% | SONAR via FreightWaves |
| Intermodal vs. truckload cost spread | 32% | Zach Strickland via FreightWaves |
| Indianapolis HAL Index | Above 90 | FreightWaves SONAR |
| Indianapolis reefer rejections | Still rising | FreightWaves SONAR |
Intermodal Growth Concentrates in an Unexpected Geography
While Los Angeles volumes are up year over year, Atlanta and Chicago are posting significantly larger growth rates, FreightWaves' Julie Van de Kamp noted. That pattern suggests the capacity crunch is pushing freight onto eastern rail corridors more than traditional west-coast import lanes. Van de Kamp pointed to BNSF's strong recent earnings and JB Hunt's commentary as confirmation that rail is capturing meaningful share from truckload.
Van de Kamp and Strickland also emphasized that the intermodal shift may be structural rather than cyclical. Large intermodal providers have told FreightWaves that shippers who had never used intermodal are now trying it and staying.
“It's sticky. It's very sticky, 'cause it's not like somebody's gonna just pull that infrastructure right back off,” Strickland said.
Indianapolis: A Case Study in Market-Level Nuance
Indianapolis offers a cautionary tale in why headline numbers can mislead, FreightWaves reported. Van rejection rates in the market have eased modestly, but the HAL Index remains above 90 and Indianapolis registers deep blue on the SONAR map — well above the national average. Reefer rejections are actually still rising, reflecting the city's heavy concentration of grocery, refrigerated, frozen, and fulfillment operations, including major Amazon and FedEx facilities. Spot rates out of Indianapolis continue to increase.
“From everything I can see, Indy is still quite hot,” Fuller said.
What Procurement Teams Should Do
Fuller's advice to shippers and operators: keep benchmarking against contract rates, not the spot snapshot. With mini-bids and contract renewals rolling in, the contract-rate benchmark is the one to watch. The intermodal cost advantage — now at 32% — makes rail and intermodal a serious alternative for freight that has historically run over the road, and the shift appears to be "sticky," according to the sources FreightWaves cited. Freight forwarders and 3PL operators should also read market-level indicators such as Indianapolis' HAL Index rather than relying on national averages.
Watch List
- New mini-bids and contract renewals, and whether double-digit contract-rate increases continue.
- Intermodal container volume trends in Atlanta and Chicago as eastern rail corridors take share.
- The Indianapolis HAL Index and reefer rejection rates as leading indicators of market heat.
- Major carriers' earnings calls for further guidance on contract rate trajectories.
Sources:
