U.S. truckload capacity is being shaped more by supply constraints than by demand, and the current cycle could extend past the end of 2027 and into Q1 2028 — or longer if pending regulatory rules are enacted, according to FreightWaves reporting on Thom Albrecht, chief revenue officer of Reliance Partners. Albrecht, who started covering freight on Wall Street in 1989, described the current stretch as the most fascinating supply cycle of his career.
Supply, Not Demand, Is Driving the Cycle
Albrecht told FreightWaves that supply-side developments have reshaped carrier capacity and that demand, while improved, is not robust. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data cited on the show bear that out: of 18 industries surveyed, only 4 reported growth last September. That figure rose to 9 in January, 14 in June and 15 in July.
| PMI survey period | Industries reporting growth (of 18) |
|---|---|
| September (prior year) | 4 |
| January | 9 |
| June | 14 |
| July | 15 |
Five Regulatory Levers Reshaping Capacity
Albrecht pointed to five supply-side developments driving the cycle:
- English language proficiency enforcement for drivers.
- Action on non-domiciled drivers.
- Elimination of self-certification at CDL institutions.
- The move away from self-certification for electronic logging devices (ELDs).
- Legal fallout from the Montgomery Supreme Court decision, including what Albrecht called a recent large C.H. Robinson verdict.
A centerpiece of his outlook is eliminating ELD self-certification. There are roughly 1,000 registered ELDs in the United States, compared with 41 in Canada, where certification checks more than 500 compliance points per device, according to Albrecht. He argued the U.S. market could consolidate to 20 or fewer certified providers, removing devices used to falsify records. He also called for stiffer fines for English language proficiency violations and suggested the government could seize freight as an enforcement tool.
If all of the regulatory progress stopped with those 5 things and a lot of things that are being discussed don’t come to fruition, then the cycle will be over by the end of next year or Q1 of ’28. But if some of these other things are enacted, then next—
Albrecht said, before being cut off by the show's host.
On new-entrant reform, Albrecht proposed a rulemaking requiring prospective carriers to answer 100 or more questions on maintenance, hours of service and driver skills before receiving a DOT number. He also suggested raising the cost of a new DOT number from roughly $300 to between $5,000 and $10,000, saying the price signal alone would stop operators from cycling through registrations. Last year, approximately 60,000 brand-new DOT numbers were issued.
Rail, Chemicals, Scrap and Grain Signal Demand
The broader demand picture offers some support, according to FreightWaves. Rail freight data cited during the discussion showed the freight index at its second-highest level since 2008. Albrecht said he tracks chemicals as a proxy for future industrial activity and scrap metal for its flexibility as an industrial input, and that both commodity flows point toward gradual improvement in the manufacturing economy.
He also predicted a bumper corn crop this year, driven by heavy rainfall across the Midwest and Southeast, which would add to already strong grain export shipments moving by rail.
Implications for Shippers and Operators
For shippers hoping Washington will ease carrier regulations and relieve tightening capacity, Albrecht was skeptical. He noted that transportation costs rarely surface as a top priority for major retail and industrial CFOs — a signal that carriers should not expect shipper-driven regulatory relief in the near term.
Watch list
- Rule enactment timing: If pending regulatory items advance, the cycle could run well past Q1 2028.
- ELD consolidation: Watch how many of the roughly 1,000 U.S. registered ELDs survive a stricter certification process.
- PMI trajectory: The climb from 4 to 15 growing industries will be tracked closely.
- Grain and corn exports: A bumper crop could add further rail volume.
- DOT number rulemaking: Higher entry costs and longer questionnaires would cut new-entrant churn.
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