Ocean container spot rates are splitting in two directions across the major east-west trades — and that is most of the good news in ocean shipping, according to FreightWaves. Trans-Pacific prices are climbing while Asia-Europe lanes cool from their mid-July peaks, all against a geopolitical backdrop that remains unresolved: the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding to reopen the Strait of Hormuz expired Tuesday, and the Houthis have resumed attacks on merchant vessels.
Container spot rates are splitting in two directions, but that’s most of the good news in ocean shipping.
Rate divergence: Trans-Pacific up, Asia-Europe down
FreightWaves reported that Asia-U.S. West Coast spot prices jumped 9% to $7,422 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU) in the most recent data from SONAR contributor Freightos (NASDAQ: CRGO). Asia-U.S. East Coast prices rose 3% to a new high of $9,422 per FEU. In contrast, Asia-North Europe rates slipped to about $4,700 per FEU this week, down 20% and more than $1,000 per FEU since the July high, though still 60% higher than May. Asia-Mediterranean rates fell to about $5,000 per FEU, a 30% slide from their peak, according to FreightWaves.
| Lane | Current spot rate (per FEU) | Change versus recent peak |
|---|---|---|
| Asia – U.S. West Coast | $7,422 | +9% (most recent data) |
| Asia – U.S. East Coast | $9,422 | +3%, new high |
| Asia – North Europe | ~$4,700 | –20% from July high |
| Asia – Mediterranean | ~$5,000 | –30% from peak |
Geopolitics: Hormuz deal expires, Houthi attacks resume
According to FreightWaves, the U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding signed 60 days ago to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and kick off negotiations to end the war expired Tuesday. With Iranian attacks continuing and the American blockade still in place, a reopening looks no closer than before the agreement was signed.
Published sources cited by FreightWaves point to higher insurance premiums for transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait guarding the southern end of the Red Sea, while higher fuel costs from the Hormuz closure make diversions around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope far more expensive than they were from late 2023 through the start of the war. The Houthis recently resumed attacks on merchant vessels as their simmering dispute with Saudi Arabia boiled over, FreightWaves reported.
Carriers commit to Red Sea despite cost pressures
Despite the war and renewed Red Sea attacks, Maersk (OTC: AMKBY) and its Gemini partner Hapag-Lloyd, along with CMA CGM and Cosco, are determined to resume Red Sea transits, according to FreightWaves. Where earlier threats triggered u-turns, changed market conditions — including stubborn port congestion — may be behind the new resolve. Maersk in its recent earnings call singled out congestion as a major new component of container dynamics, with growing demand deepening the headhaul/backhaul imbalance, FreightWaves said. A German labor strike is adding to the delays.
Bunker prices have climbed 15% since the ceasefire collapse, with some carriers raising emergency fuel surcharges by about $90 per FEU in mid-September, according to FreightWaves.
Panama Canal restrictions add another cost layer
The Panama Canal Authority is also cutting daily transits and lowering Neopanamax draft to 48 feet this month and 47.5 feet in early September, FreightWaves reported. Carriers are announcing canal transit surcharges of $200-$1,000 per FEU starting mid-September.
Watch list
FreightWaves data points to several factors that could shift the picture in the coming weeks:
- The now-expired U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding and whether negotiations restart to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
- Houthi attack patterns on merchant vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
- Panama Canal draft cuts: 48 feet this month, 47.5 feet in early September.
- Scheduled mid-September surcharges: emergency fuel surcharges of about $90 per FEU and canal transit surcharges of $200-$1,000 per FEU.
- German labor strike impacts on port congestion and schedule reliability.
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