Operations through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's busiest oil chokepoint, face renewed disruption after a brief window of increased traffic was closed by a fresh attack in the Gulf of Oman, halting a United Nations evacuation programme for thousands of stranded seafarers.
According to Business-Today reporting MarineTraffic data, 73 vessels passed through the 21-mile waterway on Wednesday — more than double Tuesday's count and the highest since fighting with Iran began in late February. The surge followed the United States lifting sanctions on Iranian oil under a ceasefire agreement, and the launch of a humanitarian operation by the United Nations and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to evacuate 11,000 stranded seafarers and about 500 vessels from the region.
"What we're seeing are the ships that were sitting in the Gulf for this elongated period of time starting to move out with a focus on humanitarian aid to get the seafarers out and then a couple of chosen tankers when sanctions were lifted," Gene Seroka, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, told CNN.
Before the conflict disrupted shipping, between 110 and 160 vessels transited the strait daily. Since fighting began, average daily traffic has remained below 10 vessels.
Traffic Surge and Immediate Reversal
The IMO, Iran and Oman on Wednesday introduced two designated shipping routes — one along the northern side near Iran and another along the southern side closer to Oman — considered safe from mines and other threats. Ships were contacted directly by agencies when it was their turn to move.
However, that effort was halted on Thursday after a vessel came under attack in the Gulf of Oman. A US official told CNN the ship was struck in an Iranian drone attack, although Iran has not claimed responsibility. On Friday, Iran warned that ships should not sail along the Omani coast, saying safe passage would only be provided through routes declared to Iran. Traffic through the strait fell by roughly half.
| Status | Daily Vessel Count (approximate) | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-conflict norm | 110-160 | Expert estimates |
| Average since late February | Below 10 | MarineTraffic |
| Wednesday (surge) | 73 | MarineTraffic |
| Friday (after attack) | ~36 (half of Wednesday) | Business-Today |
Operational Risks and Carrier Response
According to the IMO, there have been at least 46 strikes on vessels and 14 deaths during the conflict. Insurance cover has been affected, with some insurers withdrawing protection under wartime clauses. Hapag-Lloyd has relied on US naval guidance while navigating the strait, though support has not always been available.
Sanne Manders, president of Flexport, told CNN: "The ships actually transiting Hormuz this week are still mostly Iranian-flagged and some (Taiwanese) Evergreen ships. The major global carriers haven't returned yet, so it's closer to status quo than a real shift."
IMO Secretary-General Arsenio Dominguez explained the decision to suspend the evacuation operation as a precaution, despite the attacked vessel having "did not transit under IMO's evacuation framework."
Shipper and Operator Implications
For freight forwarders and logistics managers monitoring Middle East routes, the volatile situation means ocean carriers remain largely absent from the strait. The brief window of increased traffic did not involve major global lines, so capacity for crude and LNG shipments from the Persian Gulf remains extremely constrained. Shippers relying on Hapag-Lloyd or other alliance carriers should expect continued reliance on alternative routes or significant delays. The evacuation of seafarers — paused after the attack — is critical for freeing both vessels and crew that have been stuck in the Gulf since February.
Watch List
- IMO evacuation resumption: Dominguez said the IMO plans to "reconfirm that the necessary safety guarantees continue to be in place for the ships on our evacuation list and all those in the region." Any resumption could trigger a new surge.
- Iranian warnings: Iran's restriction of safe passage to declared routes only adds uncertainty for any carrier considering transit.
- Attack attribution: If Iran claims responsibility for the Thursday attack or further strikes occur, traffic could drop further.
- Carrier return: If Evergreen and others continue to use the strait, it may signal a gradual return, but Flexport's Manders expects movements to remain subdued while the evacuation is on hold. Both he and Seroka anticipate subdued vessel movements in the near term.
- Insurance availability: Withdrawals of wartime cover could accelerate if attacks persist, deepening the capacity crunch.
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