The tentative US-Iran agreement to end the three-month Middle East conflict has opened the Strait of Hormuz to traffic, but the return to normal shipping operations will be gradual, with mine clearance and risk-aversion among shipowners likely to delay full recovery by weeks or months, according to Business-Today. The disruption affected over 20% of the world's oil supplies, stranding hundreds of vessels and forcing Gulf producers to scale back output.
Mine Clearance and Shipping Bottlenecks
Even as President Trump said on Monday that "ships are starting to go out now" and that "on Friday it'll be completely opened," maritime intelligence firm Kpler reported around 500 commercial vessels remain inside the Persian Gulf. These vessels cannot all pass through the narrow waterway at once, creating a bottleneck. Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd's List, noted the sector was "not rushing back," viewing mine clearance operations as "prerequisites for safe navigation." Amena Bakr, head of Middle East energy at Kpler, estimated that clearing mines could take as long as six months. The G7 leaders are set to decide on a framework to de-mine the waterway, but officials remain unclear about the number of mines present.
Timeline for Recovery
According to a senior US official, traffic will increase gradually, and it could take up to two weeks for shipping activity to significantly pick up. A return to pre-conflict levels could take even longer as shipping companies have different risk appetites. Jotaro Tamura, chief executive of Japan's Mitsui OSK Lines, told the Financial Times that shipowners are unlikely to rush back until they are convinced the deal is "material" and risks have eased. He estimated it may take "at least a couple of weeks or if not a month" for oil flows to resume. Compounding the delay, a round trip to Japan takes between 45 and 50 days.
| Factor | Timeline | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Ships starting to go out | Immediate (Trump) | Business-Today |
| Significant activity pick-up | Up to 2 weeks | Senior US official |
| Full return to pre-conflict levels | Longer (weeks to months) | Senior US official |
| Mine clearance completion | Up to 6 months | Amena Bakr (Kpler) |
Shipper and Operator Implications
Freight forwarders and logistics operators should anticipate extended lead times for crude and petroleum shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Insurance premiums for vessels using the route may remain high until mine clearance is verified. US allies have proposed deploying warships to escort shipments, which could provide a temporary security buffer. Shippers should re-evaluate inventory buffers for crude-dependent supply chains, especially for Asian buyers reliant on Middle East supply.
"Given the experiences in the last couple of months, I think it's reasonable to assume that it may take at least a couple of weeks or if not a month," said Jotaro Tamura, CEO of Mitsui OSK Lines.
Watch List
- G7 de-mining framework — final decision and implementation timeline.
- Iran's fee collection demands — Iran has sought the right to collect fees from vessels using the passage, which could introduce new operational costs.
- Vessel insurance market — changes in risk assessment and premium levels.
- Alternative routes — potential diversion of some traffic via longer alternatives (e.g., Bab el-Mandeb) if security concerns persist.
Operators should monitor daily updates from maritime intelligence firms like Kpler and Lloyd's List for real-time clearance progress and vessel movement data.
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