The Strait of Hormuz has shown tentative signs of reopening after nearly four months, with vessel tracking services recording 17 transits through the waterway on Thursday and two more in the early hours of Friday, according to Splash247. However, the diplomatic architecture underpinning the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) is already showing fractures, and industry bodies are warning shipowners to hold back until passage can be guaranteed as safe, not just permitted.
Diplomatic Fractures Emerge
The MOU, brokered by Pakistan and signed late Wednesday, established a 60-day negotiating window covering a broad portfolio of issues including Iran’s nuclear programme. Within hours, Iranian state outlet Fars reported that Tehran had placed that core element on hold. The White House did not acknowledge the claim directly but confirmed late Thursday that vice president JD Vance has postponed his anticipated trip to Switzerland, where he had been due to meet Iranian negotiators on Friday. No revised timeline has been given, Splash247 reported.
Tehran’s rationale centres on what it considers a breach of the deal’s opening clause. Iran secured a commitment that the ceasefire would encompass a halt to all hostilities, including Israeli strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel has continued operations regardless, with attacks on Kfar Tebnit and Zabadin on Thursday alone resulting in three deaths. Iran’s position is that these strikes invalidate the entire MOU. Israel is not a party to the agreement and has refused to be bound by it, and delivering peace in Lebanon as America’s side of the bargain will require Washington to persuade Jerusalem — a task that so far shows no sign of progress, according to Splash247.
Mine Risk and Routing Concerns
On the operational side, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council confirmed that the country’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority would move to issue fast authorisations for vessels wishing to transit in line with the MOU, with mine clearance measures to follow. Ships were advised to adhere to the paths and timings allocated by the authority. Separately, CENTCOM announced it had lifted the blockade on all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports in accordance with the president’s direction, adding that US naval assets would remain in the general area to ensure compliance.
The Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) has lowered its threat assessment for the strait to moderate and confirmed it is open, while warning of continuing mine risk and noting the confirmed location of one specific device. Crucially, JMIC advises vessels to avoid the international traffic separation scheme — the normal transit route — and has provided alternative routing through inshore traffic zones, warning of congestion on those corridors, Splash247 reported.
BIMCO's Urgent Caution to Shipowners
BIMCO issued a detailed caution on Thursday, urging owners not to rush. Jakob Larsen, the organisation’s chief safety and security officer, stated: "Iran and the US have now agreed to permit transits through the Strait of Hormuz, but significant safety and security risks still persist. The central part of the Strait is mined and un-navigable, and only the inshore traffic zones close to Oman and Iran are reportedly free of mines." Larsen flagged the MOU itself as raising more questions than answers, citing gaps around safe routes, traffic separation, sequencing of vessels departing the Gulf, and emergency response procedures. BIMCO is calling for an international coordination body to be established to manage the transit process and is encouraging owners to wait for its direction rather than attempt passage independently. "To avoid serious risks associated with an uncoordinated mass transit through the narrow inshore traffic zones, we encourage shipowners to consider waiting for further clarification," Larsen said, according to Splash247.
Operational Recommendations for Shippers and Operators
The current situation leaves shippers and operators with limited options. With only 19 vessels transiting in two days compared to normal traffic levels (not specified in the source), the inshore corridors are expected to face congestion. BIMCO's advice to wait for an international coordination body to be established suggests that attempting passage now could expose vessels to mine hazards and uncoordinated movements. Operators should monitor JMIC threat assessments and routing guidance, and plan for potential delays of days or weeks if they choose to wait for clearer safe-passage protocols. The diplomatic fragility means any further deterioration could reverse the reopening.
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