The Busan-based APEC Climate Centre (APCC) has upgraded its El Niño outlook to a strong event, assigning a 100 per cent probability of persistence from July through December, with intensity peaking toward year-end, according to a report published on June 16, 2026. The key Niño 3.4 index, which measures sea-surface temperatures in the central equatorial Pacific and serves as the benchmark for monitoring El Niño, is forecast at 1.97°C in July, well above the El Niño threshold. The index is expected to strengthen further to 3.14°C by December, lending support to projections from several climate models and researchers pointing to a potentially exceptional El Niño episode.
Indian Monsoon Risk
For India and the broader South Asian region, the APCC outlook raises concerns for the south-west monsoon. Rainfall during the core monsoon season of July-September is projected to remain significantly below normal, with deficits potentially reaching 53.8 per cent — the largest shortfall indicated anywhere in Asia. The probability of normal rainfall stands at 24.9 per cent, while chances of above-normal rainfall are estimated at 21.4 per cent.
Despite the broader dry signal, regional variations are expected. The APCC outlook details the following projections:
| Region | Rainfall Outlook |
|---|---|
| Odisha and West Bengal | Near-normal |
| Parts of North-East India and adjoining Bangladesh | Above-normal |
| Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh | Normal to below-normal |
| Gujarat, Saurashtra and Kutch, western Madhya Pradesh, South-East Rajasthan, parts of Delhi-NCR | Sharpest deficits |
Outlook Improves in October-December
The outlook improves during October-December, coinciding with the north-east monsoon over South India and the early rabi season elsewhere. APCC projects normal to slightly below-normal rainfall for the South peninsula against the backdrop of a strong El Niño, which has historically favoured better north-east monsoon performance.
The season may bring normal to above-normal rainfall for parts of West and North-West India. Beneficiaries include Gujarat, Rajasthan, north Madhya Pradesh and West Uttar Pradesh. Northern Rajasthan, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jammu & Kashmir may experience above-normal rainfall during this period.
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