El Niño, the periodic warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, often weakens the Indian monsoon, resulting in below-normal rainfall, prolonged dry spells, and higher temperatures across many parts of the country, according to a commentary by Subramani Ra Mancombu in The Hindu Business Line. The warning comes as smallholder farmers already struggle with erratic weather: "Last year the rains came late. Then they stopped when my paddy needed water the most. This year they say El Niño is coming. I don’t know what El Niño means, but I know farming is becoming harder every year." Yet the commentary argues that El Niño itself is not the real crisis—rather, agriculture has gradually lost much of its natural resilience.
The Loss of Natural Resilience
Over decades, excessive dependence on synthetic inputs, repeated tillage, monocropping, and declining organic matter have degraded soils, depleted biodiversity, and weakened the ecological processes that once protected farms from climatic shocks, the commentary states. The challenge is not to climate-proof individual crops but to climate-proof the entire farming ecosystem. Regenerative agriculture offers the answer.
Restoring Living Soils
Healthy soil, rich in organic matter and biological life, acts as a sponge that absorbs rainfall, stores moisture, supplies nutrients, and protects crops during both droughts and heavy rains. Restoring soil through compost, mulching, crop residues, cover crops, and biological inputs should become the foundation of climate-resilient agriculture, the article says. A healthy soil protects crops not only during El Niño but during almost every climatic stress.
Embracing Diversity
Nature survives through diversity, while agriculture has increasingly depended on monocultures. Intercropping, mixed farming, agroforestry, multilayer systems, and climate-resilient crops such as millets, sorghum, and pulses spread climatic risk, improve resource use, and make farms far less vulnerable to drought, heat, and pest outbreaks, the commentary notes.
Harvesting Every Drop of Rain
India receives nearly 4,000 billion cubic metres of rainfall every year, yet only a small fraction is effectively stored and utilised. The future challenge is not simply less rainfall but increasingly erratic rainfall. Farm ponds, rainwater harvesting, contour bunds, improved soil organic matter, and efficient irrigation methods such as drip irrigation must work together to capture, store, and use every possible drop of rain, according to the article.
Replacing Chemical Dependency with Biological Strength
Healthy crops depend upon healthy soil biology. Excessive use of synthetic fertilisers and pesticides gradually weakens this natural system while increasing farmers’ dependence on costly external inputs. Regenerative practices that restore microbial life, recycle nutrients, and promote locally produced bio-inputs help rebuild soil health and reduce production risks. Community-based Bio-input Resource Centres can become important rural institutions for producing quality bio-inputs, strengthening local enterprises, and supporting large-scale adoption of regenerative agriculture, the commentary states.
Strengthening Community Resilience
Climate change cannot be addressed by individual farmers alone. Water conservation, seed systems, farmer learning, and market access all require collective action. Strong institutions such as Self-Help Groups, Farmer Producer Organisations, watershed committees, and community resource centres enable farmers to share knowledge, reduce costs, and respond more effectively to climate shocks. Building resilient communities is as important as building resilient farms, the article emphasises.
Agriculture as a Climate Solution
Agriculture must move beyond simply adapting to climate change and begin contributing to its solution. Healthy soils store carbon, biodiversity strengthens ecological balance, trees moderate local climates, and efficient water management reduces pressure on natural resources. Regenerative agriculture offers an opportunity to achieve adaptation, climate mitigation, and improved farmer livelihoods simultaneously, the commentary concludes.
Implications for Commodity Markets
The warning signals potential supply disruptions for key agricultural commodities in India, including paddy, millets, sorghum, and pulses. Traders and procurement teams should closely monitor monsoon forecasts and policy shifts toward regenerative practices, which could alter long-term production dynamics. The coming El Niño, as the article states, should serve as a national wake-up call.
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