Just weeks into the 2026 'super' El Niño, Pacific fisheries are experiencing severe disruptions, with some sectors decimated and others thriving, according to WIRED. In Peru, government officials have effectively canceled the fishing season for anchovies, one of the country's most important exports and a leading global source of fish oil and animal feed. Meanwhile, in Southern California, recreational and commercial fishers report some of the most successful months of tuna fishing they've ever seen. The divergent impacts illustrate how El Niño creates both winners and losers across the fishing industry, threatening supply stability and driving price volatility for key fish products.
Peru's Anchovy Season Effectively Canceled
El Niño's warming of Pacific waters has severely impacted Peru's anchoveta fishery, the largest single-species fishery in the world, WIRED reported. Coastal El Niño conditions this spring and summer prompted the Peruvian government to issue an indefinite ban on fishing for anchovies during the April-to-July season to prevent further population decline. According to Humberto Speziani, a Peruvian industrial fishing adviser and former director of the International Marine Ingredients Organization, vessels equipped with sonar have located anchovies more than 100 meters below the sea surface—twice the depth reachable by normal purse seine fishing nets. Even if commercial fishers tried to catch those anchovies, they likely could not. The disruption threatens global supply chains for fish oil and animal feed, as Peru is a leading exporter of these products.
El Niño's Winners: Tuna in Southern California
While Peruvian anchovies suffer, Southern California's fishers are reaping benefits. WIRED reported that recreational and commercial fishers in the region have seen some of the best tuna fishing on record. El Niño typically drives warm-water species like skipjack tuna toward coastal waters of the Americas, where temperatures would normally be too cold for them. Nearer to shore, these species become easier to catch. This dynamic has also historically increased the availability of shrimp, scallops, and dolphinfish in Peruvian waters, though the current focus remains on the anchovy collapse.
Indian Mackerel and Global Salmon Impacts
Beyond the Americas, El Niño is affecting other key fisheries. The Indian government is preparing for a season of smaller, less plentiful Indian mackerel, according to WIRED. Wild salmon in North American coastal waters can become so skinny from lack of food during El Niño that they are dubbed 'snakes,' leading to higher ex-vessel prices at the dock, which are then passed down to retail and restaurant customers.
Price Ripples for Consumers and Fishers
Seafood prices are already responding to the supply shock. In local Peruvian markets, prices for jack mackerel and corvina have reportedly doubled, prompting families to buy more chicken instead, WIRED noted. For some species, the opposite may occur. 'People are worried,' said Juan Carlos Sueiro, an economist and fisheries director for the nonprofit Oceana Peru. As climate change is expected to drive more frequent, stronger El Niños, 'our vulnerability is increasing.'
The table below summarizes the divergent impacts across regions:
| Region | Species | Impact | Price Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peru | Anchovies | Fishing season canceled | Not specified |
| Peru | Jack mackerel, corvina | Reduced supply | Doubled in local markets |
| India | Indian mackerel | Smaller, less plentiful | Not specified |
| Southern California | Tuna (skipjack) | Record catches | Not specified |
| North America | Wild salmon | 'Snakes' (skinny fish) | Higher ex-vessel prices |
Implications for Commodity Markets
For commodity traders and procurement teams, the El Niño-driven disruptions highlight the vulnerability of fisheries to climate variability. The cancellation of Peru's anchovy season may tighten global supplies of fish oil and fishmeal, key inputs for aquaculture and animal feed. Meanwhile, the boost in tuna catches could increase supply for that market. Price volatility for seafood products is likely to persist as El Niño continues to evolve, and consumers and businesses may need to adjust their sourcing strategies.
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