The Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF) has entered into a collaboration with S&P Global Energy to assess the risk to the global rice market from El Nino, the federation said in a statement released on August 12. Global rice production is projected to decline by 9 million tonnes (mt) in the 2026-27 marketing year (October-September), as El Nino, rising input costs and geopolitical tensions reshape production and trade.
El Nino a 97% probability event
According to the IREF statement, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a 97 per cent probability of El Nino persisting into early 2027. That persistence is critical for paddy crops that depend on stable weather patterns.
This raises critical questions about production, trade flows, food security and prices.
IREF said its analysis suggests the impact extends far beyond a single crop cycle. With El Nino expected to persist until at least April 2027, virtually all major rice-growing regions could face weather-related challenges. At the same time, elevated input costs will increase production risks for farmers and potentially alter planting decisions across Asia.
Supply outlook: 536.4 million tonnes
Against this backdrop, S&P Global projects global rice production to decline to 536.4 million tonnes in the 2026-27 marketing year, the statement said. The projected 9 mt decline reflects the combined pressure of weather risk, cost inflation and geopolitical tensions.
| Metric | Projection | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Global production decline | 9 million tonnes | IREF statement |
| Projected global production | 536.4 million tonnes | S&P Global |
| Projected global import demand | 59.7 million tonnes | IREF statement |
| Import demand increase | Nearly 4 million tonnes | IREF statement |
| El Nino probability into early 2027 | 97% | NOAA, cited by IREF |
| El Nino expected persistence | At least April 2027 | IREF analysis |
Trade flows: stable exports, import demand rises
Exports are expected to remain stable, supported by strong carry-over stocks from the 2025-26 marketing year, according to IREF. In contrast, global import demand is projected to rise by nearly 4 mt to 59.7 mt, driven by countries seeking to secure supplies amid potential harvest risks.
Bharat International Rice Conference
S&P Global Energy will present its assessment at the three-day Bharat International Rice Conference, organised by IREF, in New Delhi from October 24. The assessment will discuss where supply risks are most pronounced, which markets could emerge as major importers, how traditional trade flows may shift, and where the greatest upside and downside risks lie for the year ahead.
- Where supply risks are most pronounced
- Which markets could emerge as major importers
- How traditional trade flows may shift
- Where the greatest upside and downside risks lie for the year ahead
The assessment will also explore whether current market movements accurately capture the potential impact of El Nino and assess price prospects over the coming 52 weeks, the statement said. It will examine how a prolonged and intensifying El Nino, combined with rising fertilizer, fuel, and transportation costs linked to ongoing tensions in West Asia, is creating a new risk environment for global rice markets.
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