India’s cotton carry-forward stocks at the start of the 2026-27 season in October are projected to rise by about 42% to over 85 lakh bales (of 170 kg each), according to the Cotton Association of India (CAI). The increase is primarily due to a surge in cotton imports following the government’s recent decision to exempt import duty, aimed at ensuring the textile industry has access to quality cotton.
Imports Surge to 43.5 Lakh Bales by May 2026
According to CAI, cotton imports till the end of May 2026 stood at 43.5 lakh bales, up nearly 32% from 33 lakh bales in the corresponding period last year. The trade body had earlier projected imports of 47 lakh bales for the ongoing marketing season ending September. Atul S Ganatra, Chairman of CAI’s Crop Committee, stated: “Imports of 43.5 lakh bales had already arrived at Indian ports by the end of May. Following the recent duty exemption, we expect an additional 15 lakh bales to be imported. Total imports this season could reach 60-65 lakh bales.”
Duty Exemption Drives Additional Imports
The government’s decision to exempt import duty on cotton has spurred a sharp increase in inbound shipments. Ganatra explained that the duty exemption is expected to lead to an additional 15 lakh bales being imported before the season closes in September. This would push total imports to between 60 and 65 lakh bales, significantly higher than the pre-exemption estimate of 47 lakh bales.
Price Parity but Yarn Premium Favours Imports
Although domestic and imported cotton are currently available at similar prices, textile mills continue to favour imported cotton. According to Ganatra, imported cotton delivers around 4% higher yarn realisation compared to domestic cotton. Additionally, yarn produced from imported cotton commands a premium of about ₹7 per kg in the market, making imports more attractive despite price parity.
Closing Stocks and Crop Estimate
CAI retained its estimate of the 2025-26 cotton crop at 334 lakh bales. Cotton pressing for the season was completed at 322.35 lakh bales till the end of May. Exports are estimated at 10 lakh bales. Closing stocks for 2025-26 are projected at 85.59 lakh bales, about 25 lakh bales higher than the previous season’s estimated 60 lakh bales. “The higher closing stock is primarily on account of increased imports,” Ganatra said.
| Metric | Value | Change vs Previous Season |
|---|---|---|
| Carry-forward stocks (2026-27 start) | 85+ lakh bales | +42% |
| Imports till May 2026 | 43.5 lakh bales | +32% year-on-year |
| Projected total imports (2025-26) | 60–65 lakh bales | +28-39% vs earlier estimate |
| Closing stocks (2025-26) | 85.59 lakh bales | +25 lakh bales |
| 2025-26 crop estimate | 334 lakh bales | Unchanged |
Stock Holdings as of End-May 2026
As of end-May, total cotton stocks were estimated at 191.44 lakh bales. Of this, around 82 lakh bales were held by mills, while the rest was with the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), traders, ginners, and multinational companies.
What to watch: The actual volume of additional imports arriving under the duty exemption in the remaining months of the season, and how carry-forward stocks affect cotton prices and textile mill procurement strategies in the 2026-27 season.
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