The weak onset of the southwest monsoon is expected to weigh on India’s 2026-27 coffee crop, as deficit rains in key growing districts threaten yields and raise fears of rising pest attacks, growers and industry officials told The Hindu BusinessLine.
Rainfall Deficiency in Key Growing Regions
According to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD), cumulative monsoon rainfall (June 1-17) in the major coffee-growing districts has been significantly below normal. Kodagu, the country’s largest coffee district in Karnataka, recorded 169.3 mm against a normal of 262.2 mm, a deficiency of 35%. In Chikmagalur, actual rains of 102.5 mm were 37% below the normal of 161.2 mm. Hassan received 57.7 mm against 81.4 mm, a 29% deficit. In Wayanad, Kerala’s top coffee district, the shortfall was the highest at 45%, with 171.7 mm actual rains versus 311.2 mm normal.
| District | Normal Rainfall (mm) | Actual Rainfall (mm) | Deficiency (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kodagu | 262.2 | 169.3 | 35% |
| Chikmagalur | 161.2 | 102.5 | 37% |
| Hassan | 81.4 | 57.7 | 29% |
| Wayanad | 311.2 | 171.7 | 45% |
Grower Concerns Over Pest Infestations
Industry leaders flagged multiple issues arising from the weak monsoon. Sahadev Balakrishna, chairman of the UPASI Coffee Committee, said, “The coverage of monsoon has been extremely poor. We didn’t get the full force of the first wave. … Poor monsoon will definitely impact the wider ecological systems like water resources.” M. Salman Baseer, chairman of the Karnataka Planters Association, noted that “due to the weak monsoon the berry development is bad,” adding that “the white stem borer infestation in Arabicas is huge” and even Robusta setting is poor except in areas around Mudigere and Aldur that received decent showers.
B.S. Jayaram, former president of the Karnataka Growers Federation, said growers are unable to take up manuring and normal cultural activities due to lack of rains, and that there is already a flare-up of stem borer and berry borers. He stressed that normal continuous rains would have kept pest infestations in check.
Balakrishna also warned that in Arabica areas, stem borer could become an issue if dry conditions persist, and that uneven berry development from early blossom may cause fruit drop during heavy rains from July onwards.
USDA and Coffee Board Projections
The US Department of Agriculture’s local office in Mumbai recently predicted a 4% decline in India’s 2026-27 coffee output (starting October) to around 6.14 million bags (60 kg each) or 3,68,000 tonnes, citing yield drops from unfavourable weather. This comprises 1.56 million bags (93,600 tonnes) of Arabica and 4.58 million bags (2,74,000 tonnes) of Robusta.
The state-run Coffee Board has yet to announce its initial (post-blossom) crop projections for 2026-27 and its final estimates for 2025-26. In its initial estimates for the 2025-26 season, the Board projected a crop of 4,03,000 tonnes (1,18,000 tonnes Arabica and 2,84,000 tonnes Robusta).
Sources:
