Just as global energy supplies were beginning to stabilise after nearly four months of disruption, Iran has issued a fresh warning over the Strait of Hormuz, according to a Business-Today report. This time, however, the threat could extend far beyond the waterway. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it could close “all other export corridors that benefit the US and its allies”, according to Iranian media. The statement came after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz and the US reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports.
Strait of Hormuz: The Energy Chokepoint
The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important energy chokepoint, separating Iran from the Arabian Peninsula. It connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea and carries nearly 20 million barrels a day (mb/d) of crude oil and petroleum products, around a quarter of global seaborne oil trade, according to Business-Today. In 2025 alone, almost 15 mb/d of crude oil, nearly 34% of global crude trade, passed through the Strait. Including refined products, total oil exports reached almost 20 mb/d.
| Country | Crude oil exports via Strait (mb/d, 2025) |
|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 6.23 |
| Iraq | 3.63 |
| UAE | 3.24 |
| Iran | 2.41 |
| Kuwait | 2.37 |
| Qatar | 1.43 |
| Bahrain | 0.21 |
Source: Business-Today. The route is the main export outlet for Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Iran. While Saudi Arabia and the UAE have limited pipeline bypass capacity, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain rely on it for the overwhelming majority of their exports. The IRGC said on Wednesday that the Strait would remain closed until what it described as “the end of America's evils”.
LNG in the Crosshairs
The Strait is just as critical for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports. Around 93% of Qatar's LNG exports and 96% of the UAE's LNG exports pass through the Strait, together accounting for almost one-fifth of global LNG trade, according to Business-Today. Qatar exported more than 112 billion cubic metres (bcm) of LNG in 2025, while the UAE exported around 7 bcm. Except for supplies sent to Kuwait, virtually every LNG cargo from both countries uses the Strait.
Unlike crude oil, there are currently no practical alternative routes. Qatar's Dolphin pipeline transported almost 20.5 bcm of gas to the UAE and Oman in 2025, but it has little spare capacity. Oman's LNG export terminals are also operating close to full utilisation. A prolonged disruption could remove more than 300 million cubic metres of LNG a day from global markets, more than twice the average volume transported through the Nord Stream pipeline in 2021. Replacing these supplies quickly would be difficult.
Beyond Energy: Petrochemicals, Fertilisers, and Diamonds
The Middle East exports large volumes of petrochemicals, industrial chemicals and fertilisers through the region's shipping routes, including ethylene, polymers, industrial chemical feedstocks and urea-based fertilisers supplied to the United States, European Union and India, according to Business-Today. The UAE imported $57.6 billion in rough diamonds, polished diamonds, and diamond jewellery in 2024; the US imported $27.3 billion. India's gem and jewellery exports were $32.3 billion in 2024, of which diamond jewellery accounted for $15.86 billion.
Diamonds from Botswana, Namibia, South Africa and Russia are cut and polished in India and the UAE before reaching Western markets. Iran had previously targeted vessels en route from India to Antwerp, Belgium. India's gem and jewellery industry is largely reliant on diamond imports from the UAE, which sources stones from non-Iranian sources.
Impact on India and Other Markets
India's olive oil imports from Spain and Italy are at risk of delays due to increased journey times, according to the report. Rice exports from India to the Middle East could face delays, impacting household budgets in the region. India's Engineering Exports Promotion Council (EEPC) expects production disruptions in Bangladesh for engineering goods due to Houthi attacks. Iran used to send around $550 million worth of pistachios to India annually, but trade stopped after sanctions, and India shifted to the US and UAE.
A wider blockade by Iran would affect multiple sectors simultaneously, with no quick substitutes available for many of the region's exports.
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