Mexico is experiencing a new export boom that could strengthen its position at the center of North American supply chains, according to BBVA México economists, with the latest surge powered increasingly by technology rather than the automotive industry that has traditionally dominated Mexican manufacturing. The report, covered in FreightWaves' weekly Borderlands Mexico rundown, underscores how the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement gives Mexico an edge as global trade barriers rise — though whether that boom translates into a broader nearshoring investment wave and faster economic growth remains an open question.
USMCA gives Mexico an edge
BBVA México economists said the country’s exports of machinery covered under Chapter 84 of the Harmonized System — a category increasingly driven by computers and data-processing equipment — have doubled in just a few years to roughly $200 billion on a trailing 12-month basis. Founded in 1932, BBVA México is the largest financial institution and bank in the country. The bank tied much of the increase to massive spending by U.S. technology companies on artificial intelligence infrastructure and data centers.
Despite concerns over the recent shift in US trade policy away from free trade, Mexico is experiencing a new export boom.
Researchers said the expansion is being fueled by the AI capital expenditure cycle, escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and Mexico’s relatively favorable tariff position compared with other major U.S. trading partners. The development could provide fresh evidence that nearshoring — the movement of manufacturing and supply chains closer to U.S. consumers — is evolving beyond the automotive, appliance and traditional maquiladora industries that have long defined cross-border trade.
Mexico gains ground as US supplier
Mexico’s biggest advantage remains geography combined with preferential access to the world’s largest consumer market. Mexico and the U.S. have become each other’s largest trading partners, and roughly 16% of U.S. imports now come from Mexico, according to BBVA. Another analysis from the Economics Observatory puts Mexico’s share of U.S. imports at a record 17% in early 2026, more than double China’s 7.2%. The Economics Observatory is a UK-based, ESRC-funded project that connects academic research and public policy.
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. imports from Mexico | ~16% | BBVA México |
| U.S. imports from Mexico, early 2026 record | 17% | Economics Observatory |
| China’s share of U.S. imports | 7.2% | Economics Observatory |
| Mexico’s Chapter 84 machinery exports | ~$200 billion trailing 12 months | BBVA México |
| Manufacturing exports covered by Chapters 84, 85, 87 | Nearly three-quarters | BBVA México |
Mexico’s fastest-growing shipments to the U.S. include computers, phones and electronics, and the country overtook China in 2025 as the leading supplier of advanced technology products to the U.S., according to the Economics Observatory.
Technology reshapes Mexico’s export mix
BBVA found that computer exports are highly correlated with U.S. private investment in information-processing equipment and spending by hyperscalers such as Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon. BBVA said Mexico’s trade surplus in Chapter 84 is now entirely explained by computer exports, suggesting the country is developing a comparative advantage in the sector.
Machinery, electrical equipment and vehicles — Chapters 84, 85 and 87 of the Harmonized System — now represent nearly three-quarters of the country’s manufacturing exports, BBVA economists said. Chapter 85 includes televisions, phones, communications equipment, circuits and conductors — products that increasingly feed the AI and computer manufacturing supply chain. Mexico’s real manufacturing exports, particularly higher-complexity products, are running above their long-term growth trend.
Logistics and border investment news
The growth in electronics manufacturing in Mexico could have significant implications for cross-border trucking and logistics networks serving manufacturing centers such as Ciudad Juárez, Tijuana, Monterrey and Guadalajara as more high-value electronics and components move across the border. That outlook is directly relevant to importers, exporters and customs brokers moving high-value electronics through those corridors. Other developments in this week’s Borderlands Mexico included:
- SpaceX plans a $16.8 billion semiconductor factory in Texas.
- A Taiwan-based AI firm will invest $450 million in Ciudad Juárez.
These investments, alongside the export boom, point to continued integration of North American supply chains under the USMCA framework.
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