Ocean carriers and terminal operators across the Pacific and Indian Ocean basins face an elevated risk of berth closures, draft restrictions and weather-related shutdowns as the 2026 El Niño strengthens, according to a new Sofar Ocean study reported by Splash247.
NOAA expects the event to peak between October and December, with a 97% chance it persists into early spring 2027, and most forecasting models point towards a very strong event. Sofar warned that El Niño is rewriting the historical assumptions used to set port drafts, tidal windows, dredging schedules and mooring limits.
Pacific Americas: surge, swells and storm shutdowns
The Pacific coast of North and South America is the most exposed to higher water, bigger waves and storm-related shutdowns, according to Sofar. California is particularly vulnerable: major El Niño events can raise local sea levels by six to 10 inches, while winter storms can push ocean levels two to three feet above normal — with still greater increases where storms coincide with King Tides.
Peru has already experienced anomalous swells this year, with waves two to three times normal heights, prompting maritime authorities to close all ports in the south, half of those in the central zone and several northern facilities. Chile’s long, exposed Pacific coastline is another pressure point: nearly 98% of Chilean trade moves by sea, making even short weather-related terminal closures commercially significant. Sofar highlighted how Chilean oil terminals have increasingly shifted from manual wave readings to real-time monitoring to support mooring decisions.
Pacific Asia and Australia: the opposite problem
Across the Pacific, El Niño produces an almost opposite risk profile. Ports in eastern and northern Australia and Indonesia face lower rainfall and falling river and coastal water levels, potentially reducing under-keel clearance and compressing dredging windows. The trade-off is fewer tropical cyclones and generally calmer conditions around Australia, creating better maintenance and construction opportunities.
South Asia and East Africa: flooding and lost draft
South Asia could be particularly difficult to manage because El Niño does not generate a uniform response, Sofar noted. Parts of western and northeastern India have experienced flooding, while southern, eastern and central areas have faced drought. Ports within the same country could therefore simultaneously face excessive water and lost draft.
East Africa sits on the wetter side of the equation. Sofar identified Mombasa and Dar es Salaam among ports facing greater rainfall, bringing increased flooding, drainage loads and sediment movements that could complicate dredging.
Atlantic and US Gulf: relative winners
By contrast, Atlantic and US Gulf ports may emerge as relative winners, with El Niño normally suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity.
Baseline assumptions breaking down
The challenge for ports is not simply harsher weather but conditions moving away from the historical baselines around which infrastructure and operating procedures were designed. Climate-related disruption already costs the world’s 1,320 most important ports an average 1.4 days of downtime annually, while the worst-exposed 5% lose more than five days.
| Region | Primary risk | Specific impacts |
|---|---|---|
| Pacific Americas (California, Peru, Chile) | Storm surge and swells | Sea levels +6–10 in., storm levels +2–3 ft; Peru waves 2–3x normal; Chile 98% seaborne trade |
| Eastern/northern Australia, Indonesia | Falling water levels, lost draft | Reduced under-keel clearance, compressed dredging windows |
| South Asia (India) | Mixed flooding/drought | West/northeast flooding; south/east/central drought; simultaneous excess water and lost draft |
| East Africa (Mombasa, Dar es Salaam) | Heavy rainfall | Flooding, drainage loads, sediment movements complicating dredging |
| Atlantic & US Gulf | Lower hurricane activity | Relative winners |
The greatest operational risk is rarely the weather itself. It is making decisions based on assumptions that no longer hold.
— Captain Ketan Bhatia, Sofar Ocean
For this El Niño, the greatest pressure is likely to fall on Pacific-facing ports in the Americas through surge and flooding, and on shallow or rainfall-dependent ports across Asia through lost draft, the study concluded.
For shippers and operators, the operational takeaway is direct: port drafts, tidal windows, mooring limits and dredging schedules across the affected regions cannot be taken at face value during this event, because the assumptions behind them are being rewritten.
Watch list
- NOAA expects the El Niño to peak between October and December.
- There is a 97% chance it persists into early spring 2027.
- Most forecasting models point towards a very strong event.
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