The truckload market is currently in a supply-driven tightening cycle, with tender rejection rates surging above 16% and carriers lacking sufficient capacity to meet demand, according to a new analysis by FreightWaves market expert Zach Strickland. However, demand growth remains modest compared to prior cycles, suggesting that a rebalancing toward a more normal market could be on the horizon.
Supply-Driven Tightening
The recent tightening has been largely described as supply-driven, meaning supply has shifted more than demand. Strickland analyzed the SONAR Accepted Truckload Volume Index (ASTVI) alongside the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index (STRI) to gauge carrier capacity. In June 2023, the ASTVI stood at 10,600 and the STRI at just above 4%. The most recent weekly ASTVI reading averaged around 10,450, with the STRI above 16%. This indicates carriers are roughly 12–14% underserved relative to demand.
| Metric | June 2023 | Current (June 2026) |
|---|---|---|
| ASTVI | 10,600 | ~10,450 |
| STRI | ~4% | >16% |
| Total tender volume Y/Y change | — | ~+9% |
| Accepted volume Y/Y change | — | Essentially flat |
Strickland noted that even in well-supplied markets, a 2–4% rejection rate is normal. Netting the current 16.5% rejection rate against that baseline suggests the market could actually be balanced or oversupplied when accounting for typical friction.
Demand Growth Compared to Previous Cycles
Demand shifts were the primary drivers of market tightening in 2017 and 2020, both preceded by freight recessions and accompanied by strong government stimulus. In 2020, tender volumes increased roughly 60% from early March to August, and total tender volumes surged ~36% in the back half of 2020, with accepted volumes up around 19%. By contrast, the current environment shows accepted volumes essentially flat year-over-year, with total tender volumes up only around 9%. The recent uptick is driven partly by hyperscaling AI data centers, defense spending, and reduced inventories prompting shippers to shorten order lead times, but it has not reached the scale of prior cycles. According to Strickland, the increase is "more subtle and possibly more sustainable."
Capacity Rebalancing Outlook
Supply is slow to respond. Uncertainty has defined the past 18 months, with shippers struggling to produce reliable demand forecasts. The base case, assuming inflation pressures ease, keeps demand relatively stable to slightly higher. In a relatively unregulated carrier environment, rejection rates historically fall just over 1% per month as capacity grows at its fastest pace. At that rate, the market would gradually rebalance toward lower rejection rates and looser capacity.
For shippers and logistics operators, the implication is that the current tight spot market may not persist as strongly as in 2017 or 2020. Carriers should prepare for a potential moderation in rejection rates, while shippers may find that contract rates stabilize or soften as capacity returns. The key risk remains demand uncertainty from both domestic and global factors.
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