India received 42.4 mm of rainfall during the first fortnight of the southwest monsoon season (June 1-15), 32% below the long-period average of 62.1 mm, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The deficit has raised concerns for kharif crop sowing in key agricultural regions.
Regional Rainfall Performance
Three of the four meteorological divisions reported below-normal precipitation. The regional breakdown is as follows:
| Region | Actual Rainfall (mm) | Normal (mm) | Deficit/Surplus |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Peninsular (Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Puducherry) | 68.2 | 75.0 | -9% |
| East & North East (West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam, others) | 80.8 | 136.0 | -41% |
| Central India (Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat) | 22.7 | 53.0 | -57% |
| North-West (Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan) | 27.5 | 25.4 | +8% |
Subdivision-Level Analysis
Out of the 36 meteorological subdivisions, the IMD reported that:
- 6 subdivisions recorded large deficient rainfall (60-99% below normal)
- 15 subdivisions recorded deficient rainfall (20-59% below normal)
- 8 subdivisions recorded normal rainfall (81-119% of LPA)
- 5 subdivisions recorded excess rainfall (120-159% of LPA)
- Only East Rajasthan and Andaman & Nicobar Islands reported large excess (more than 60% above normal)
Overall, 65% of India's geographic area received deficient rainfall during the period.
Monsoon Advance and Outlook
On June 15, the IMD stated that conditions are favourable for the further advance of the southwest monsoon into parts of the central Arabian Sea, Maharashtra, remaining parts of Karnataka, Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, and parts of Chhattisgarh over the next 4-5 days. The monsoon has already covered the entire Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal, as well as additional parts of Telangana, Odisha, Jharkhand, and Bihar.
The Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM) currently passes through coordinates 18°N/60°E, 18°N/65°E, 18°N/70°E, Harnai, Solapur, Hyderabad, Bhadrachalam, Koraput, Phulbani, Ranchi, Jamui, and Muzaffarpur.
Heat Wave Warnings
The IMD has also warned of a gradual rise in maximum temperatures over northwest India by 2-4°C until June 18, with no significant change thereafter until June 21. No significant temperature changes are expected over the rest of the country during that period.
Heat wave conditions are very likely in isolated pockets over Telangana on June 15-16 and over Vidarbha on June 15-17. Hot and humid conditions are expected over Konkan and Goa, Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, and Odisha from June 15-17.
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